Nagorno Karabakh peace process enters rather difficult stage - Thomas de Waal
The Nagorno Karabakh peace process has entered a rather difficult stage, Thomas de Waal, expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said, the Armenian service of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) reported.
At the recent meeting in Kazan, official Baku offered about ten amendments to the Kremlin-prepared document thereby thwarting the meeting, whereas both the Russian leader and the leaders of the mediao states had high expectations of it.
The expert points out three groups of Azerbaijan's motives for acting against the mediators' will and failing to reach an agreement:
First, official Baku has objections to Lachin as a corridor. Azerbaijani diplomatic sources informed the expert that Kremlin-drafted final version of the Basic Principles did not specify Lachin's status.
According to the document, Lachin may, for a while, have unspecified status, which would take into account both the Armenian side's concerns over security and Azerbaijan's territorial integrity. Official Baku objects, however: the borders of the Lachin corridor are not specified nor does the document specify the status of the 39 villages forming part of the Lachin region without, however, serving as part of the corridor. Moreover, the question is whether the forcibly displaced Azerbaijanis will be granted the right to return to the region.
Official Baku also objects to the idea according to which getting interim status will afford Nagorno-Karabakh an opportunity to join international organizations, the expert writes. However, Azerbaijan's reasons for raising the issues at the Kazan meeting remain unclear. The West expected serious progress at the meeting, the expert stressed.
Among the reasons may be Azerbaijan's second concern.
Baku considers Russia to be pro-Armenian. Moreover, it mistrusts Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, whose roots are of Armenian descent.
On the other hand, Azerbaijan is not yet sure of who or which political force will come to power in Russia after the 2012 presidential election. So Azerbaijan's concern is that the agreements reached now may be broken in case Vladimir Putin is nominated.
The third reason that, according to the expert, makes Azerbaijan keep from reaching an agreement as soon as possible is that time is in Azerbaijan's favor now.
Official Baku is sure that the regional arms race will eventually make Armenia go bankrupt, and, just in a few years, the Armenian side will be much weaker and forced into concessions on Nagorno-Karabakh's status.
However, this belief is beyond all reason for any expert keeping track of the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process, Thomas de Waal writes. Specifically, Armenians respond that Armenia is much stronger now than it was 20 years ago. It can always expect serious support from the Armenian Diaspora. Moreover, as years pass, Nagorno-Karabakh's unrecognized statehood is being consolidated, and most of the young people under 30 have never seen Azerbaijanis, the expert writes.
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