Minsk Group has realized Azerbaijan is real threat – Richard Giragosian

In an interview with Tert.am, Richard Giragosian, Founding Director of the Regional Studies Center (RSC), commented on the mediators’ statements on the need for an Armenian-Azerbaijani presidential meeting in Paris.

With respect to the new deadline for Armenia’s accession to the Eurasian Economic Union (EaEU), January 1, 2015, and whether it is a realistic deadline, Mr Giragosian said:

“The latest delay in Armenia’s accession to the EaEU show the process is being derailed. The reason is the opposition by Kazakhstan and Belarus. And it is beyond Armenia’s jurisdiction irrespective of what Armenia’s premier and other officials say.”

As regards one of the preconditions for Armenia’s accession to the EaEU, namely, a customs station between Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh, Mr Giragosian said:

“This is not actually a precondition, and I do not think Armenia will ever join the EaEU. The point is that Kazakhstan and Belarus are speaking out against the 800 product items Armenia is producing. However, Russia and the Customs Union could theoretically demand a customs station between Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh. And if such a demand is made Armenia will reject it. This is evidence that joining neither the EaEU nor the Customs Union meets Armenia’s interests.”

As to Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan’s statement in Argentine that Armenia is concerned over the Russian-Azerbaijani arms deals, which evoked varied responses, including criticism against Russia by Armenian public and political figures, Mr Giragosian said:

“I welcome the president’s stance, but I should voice my criticism over two points. First, that statement should have been made in Armenia rather than in Latin America. Secondly, the Armenian president’s statement was rather late, and Serzh Sargsyan realized too late that Russia’s arms supplies to Azerbaijan posed a threat to Armenia. I am more critical of Russia because it does not behave like Armenia’s ally.”

As to whether Russia will try to involve Azerbaijan in the EaEU, Mr Giragosian said:

“No, it is not a serious problem. During my visit to Baku it became clear that Azerbaijan would never consider this fact. It is as unrealistic as to speak of the possibility of Turkey joining the Customs Union.”

According to him, international experts’ discussions of Turkey’s accession to the Customs Union are not serious.

As regards the previous discussions on the ‘neither…nor’ option, and the possibility of developments in Armenia’s favor in the center of clashes of geopolitical interests, Mr Giragosian said:

“The real threat is that the September 3 decision was a strategic blunder. The graver problem is Armenia’s continuous isolation and its diminishing role as a state. I object to Armenia’s accession to the Eurasian Union. I think that Armenia not joining it will not in any way affect its relations with Russia and with the neighboring states. Under the circumstances Armenia still has strong positions as compared with Turkey and Iran, despite some positive developments there.”

French Ambassador to Armenia Henri Reynaud and, later, US Co-Chair of the OSCE Minsk Group James Warlick called for an Armenian-Azerbaijani presidential meeting in Paris. Official Yerevan is, however, silent, and some analysts believe President Serzh Sargsyan is unwilling to go because, according to one comment, “the Paris meeting is supposed to sum up the years of the Minsk Group’s work – either the Madrid principles will be signed or the sides will consent to place the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process under the jurisdiction of the UN Security Council.”

“The Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents will meet. But I do not think their meeting will take place in Paris. And it is most unlikely to take place before the end of summer. And it is Azerbaijan’s conduct rather than the Madrid principles that is the real problem. The Minsk Group has finally come to realize that it is Azerbaijan rather than Armenia that is the real threat. And the latest developments on the Line of Contact, as well as Azerbaijan’s attacks, have actually been aimed at the Minsk Group. And one more concern involving Nagorno-Karabakh is Russia’s new policy following the Crimea-related developments. The question is whether Russia will continue working with the United States and France within the Minsk Group,” Mr Giragosian said.