South Caucasus possible route for Iranian gas supply to Europe

South Caucasus appears to be the most convenient route for exporting the Iranian natural gas to Europe, says the coordinator of the Pre-parliament group.

Garegin Chugaszyan made the statement in comments to Tert.am, as he addressed Iranian President Hassan Rouhani’s recent statement that the country can be a reliable source of energy supply for Europe. The activist noted that the Islamic Republic had made similar statement repeatedly before.

“Iran’s energy minister announced several years ago that there are three routes for exporting the natural gas to Europe. One of the routes passes across Arab countries; the second goes via Turkey and the third – via Armenia,” he said, considering the former scenario unrealistic in light of the ISIS operations in Middle East.

“Turkey is Iran’s regional rival, so the Turkish route would make it dependent on the country. The second most convenient route is actually the one passing across the South Caucasus, Armenia and Georgia,” he explained.

Chugaszyan said he knows that there is also a fourth route which, for some reason skips the attention of Iran. “That’s the route crossing the territory of Azerbaijan, but they do not discuss it, even in theory. So those are the three routes Iran had declared in advance,” he noted.

Chugaszyan said he thinks that the global developments suggesting switchover to a multi-polar world increase the role of the South Caucasus. “So it raises the price of the South Caucasus corridor in global terms, increasing simultaneously the price for Armenia. We all have to realize well that with the increasing price for the corridor, Armenia’s value increase too. So we need to make up the right conclusions,” he added.

Chugaszyan said further that he doesn’t underrate Russia’s role in the project. “We have here interests which coincide, as well as interests which conflict with one another. When the Azerbaijanis were developing the Baku-Ceyhan oil pipeline, they naturally managed to convince the Russians that it might be useful for them. Hence the negotiations with Russia have to make Armenia’s position clear,” he said, stressing the need of emphasizing Armenia’s role for Russia as an ally country.

Commenting on the outcomes and impacts of the project, the political analyst Sargis Asatryan said he believes that the Russian factor is likely reduce Iran’s role to an alternative country of gas supply (given especially the recent activeness in the Iran-West talks and the attempts of normalizing relations).

Unlike the Pre-parliament activist, Asatryan thinks Turkey to be the best transit country for gas supply.

“But let us not forget that Iran can supply gas to Europe through Turkey, as the country already sells its natural gas and oil, using Turkey’s territory. They can launch a big gas pipeline when they reach an agreement. In case of using Armenia’s territory for gas supply, the transit countries’ number will increase, covering the territories of Armenia, Georgia and the Black Sea,” he said, noting that that Armenia’s involvement in the project would create extra difficulties, with the region being considered highly sensitive for big investments.

The analyst said he expects Russia to do everything possible in the present circumstances to maintain its monopolistic positions in Europe.

“I don’t know what Russia will do as a final step but I believe they will elaborate certain projects and become main stakeholders together once they see that it isn’t any longer possible to restrain Iran.

Asked whether he doesn’t think that Azerbaijan’s Southern Gas Corridor project is a good alternative to Russia’s resources, Asatryan replied, “No matter how much Azerbaijan will try to offer an alternative, Russia is, after all, a world leader with its natural gas resources. And Iran is the second. With Europe’s gas demands increasing by every year, it is necessary to be able to supply that quantity of gas to the consumers. So will Azerbaijan alone manage to ensure that supply? I don’t think so. They also want to involve Middle Asian countries -Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan - in all this, as they also posses oil and gas resources. The situation remains entangled, as it is difficult to make out what solution the problem will eventually find. Russia keeps maintaining its monopolistic positions for the simple reason that it owns huge resources. And it actually manages to meet that big market’s demand.”

Asked about the tensions in Turkey-Iran relations, Asatryan said he knows that issues of the kind are normally pushed to the background when it comes to economy.

Economist Tatul Manaseryan, for his part, stressed Armenia’s role as a one-time Silk Road. “I think that the current geopolitical situation offers us a good chance to develop the relations with Iran. And the close cooperation met the United States' understanding approach by the US in the recent years. So it is possible to consider such a project in case of a good organization,” he noted.

Asked to comment on Russia’s possible stance, the economist said he finds that the country can combine its interests with the Iranian project. “I see complimentary rather than conflicting projects in this sense,” he answered.