Military expert warns of Azerbaijani hostilities in 'black January' season

Azerbaijan is very likely to launch fresh offensive against Nagorno-Karabakh (Artsakh) in the so called "black January" season (traditionally marking the anniversary of the Khojalu events) to demonstrate that their people ″led a real battle for independence″ on January 20, 1990, a military expert said Wednesday, calling for a maximum preparedness by the armed forces of Armenia.

According to, Hayk Nahapetyan, currently a reserve colonel, the annual program of events, approved under a presidential decree, is intended for both the domestic and foreign policy purposes.

″In terms of domestic consumption, they will demonstrate that their people battled for independence whereas the Soviet troops used force against the peaceful protesters in Aserbaijan. Yet, we need also to bear in mind that it was the same peaceful protestrs that perpetrated the 1988-1989 Sumgait and Baku pogroms which, by and large, contain an element of genocide. With that kind of events, they will try to hush up the media coverage of the violent crimes against the Armenian population,″ he said in an interview with Tert.am, predicting also high chances of attempts (by the Azerbaijani politico-military leadership) to elevate the national army’s moral-psychological spirits.

The expert also predicted increasing chances of large-scale Azerbaijani miltiary operations targeting Artsakh (in the light of the current situation in the negotiation process and Azerbaijan’s tough stance).

“The negotiations give ground to concern as Azerbaijan is not certainly expected to solve a military problem. But it will use them as a tool to strengthen its positions in the negotiations. What it is doing is a blackmail of war,” Nahapetyan said.

Asked to comment on last night’s ceasefire violations targeting the Koti village and the Ijevan-Noyemberyan highway in Armenia’s north-east, the expert noted that the Azerbaijani armed troops use their heights close to the border zone “without solving a military task”. In his words, the adversary is simply attempting to involve the Armenian side in the active military oeprations to allow for chances to later render Armenia as an aggressor (in case of suffering casualties).