Armenia-Turkey issue close to actualization today – historian

In an interview with Tert.am, the director of the National Academy’s Institute of History, Ashot Melkonyan, addressed the current stage and the future prospects of the Armenia-Turkey relations, noting that the process seems to be at the threshold of actualization today. The historian said he thinks that the current state of affairs will cause Turkey to bring to the agenda the frozen bilateral protocols signed in Zurich, Switzerland in 2009 (Turkey later abandoned the deal in an attempt to avoid offending Azerbaijan, its “younger brother”). In the meantime, he warned against any attempt to unconditionally normalize the relations with Turkey, noting that the clauses enshrined in the documents are advantageous only to the Turkish side.

Mr Melkonyan, are the Armenia-Turkey relations on the threshold of actualization today given the attitudes of Turkey’s new government? In particular, [Foreign Minister] Ahmet Davutuglu introduced a nine-clause manifesto as a candidate for the prime minister, saying that the Turkish foreign policy agenda consists of the Armenian and Cyprus issues which they will never abandon.

If you remember, Davutoglu, when he was a foreign minister, declared the slogan Zero Problems with Neighbors. He thus sought to demonstrate that Turkey is a peacemaker in the region, which seeks to smooth over all the historical problems with the neighbors, including the Arab world, the Armenians, the Greeks and the Russians. Life showed that such a policy experienced a failure: Turkey did not manage to successfully make the policy of establishing relations with the Arabs serve its purpose, and the Arab world very soon got disappointed with it. The Syrian example demonstrates that Turkey is not able to be a leading Islamic state; what’s even more, it will continue the traditional policies of remaining an enemy of the Arab world. Having that situation in mind, he [Davutoglu] is now trying to justify the failed policies. With the intention to become a prime minister, he is, so to say, planning to pursue those policies of zero problems with the neighbors. But the zero problems leave two difficulties nonetheless. And they are so big and flagrant that there are no chances to reduce them to zero in the foreseeable future, with Northern Cyprus remaining under occupation and the Armenian Cause - which the Armenian statehood re-affirmed from the initial years of its foundation - all the time troubling Turkey. So they brought ashore those ill-fated Zurich protocols which, in my deepest conviction, are advantageous only to Turkey. The positive aspect for the Armenian side would be probably the opening of borders at the cost of big sacrifices; yet it is questionable how long the opening would last and what economic risks it posed, especially for Armenia (given that the different levels of economic development).

What specific proposals do you think will be made to the Armenian side now?

I now think that the frozen Zurich protocols may be brought to the agenda again. It is not absolutely advantageous to us. The issue was frozen or excluded from the agenda only because of Azerbaijan’s tough stance. Azerbaijan had adopted the posture of an offended side, saying that any relations with Armenia are unacceptable to it. Whereas the Zurich protocols are favorable to Turkey, as the first clause envisages a legal recognition of the Armenian-Turkish border by Armenia, i.e. – Akhuryan-Araks would be recognized as the Armenian-Turkish border, forcing Armenia to cede Western Armenia once and for all. That would imply a re-ratification of the 1921 Treaty of Moscow.