Azerbaijan sees threat of burning in oil barrel – analysts

By provoking cross-border tensions against Armenia, Azerbaijan is beginning dangerous games, an Armenian political analyst has said commenting on the recent border skirmishes.

“The West today is much more interested in the maintenance of peace in our region, as the renewal of war frustrates all its plans aimed at undermining Russia. But at the same time, the pressures which the West itself exerts can lead to serious clashes, if not a renewed war,” Levon Melik-Shahnazaryan told Tert.am.

He said the possible war will push the two Armenian states (Republic of Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh) to efforts towards blocking Azerbaijan’s oil and natural gas exports.

“The panic on the market will again cause a surge in oil and gas prices, raising the advantages of Russia,” he noted.

Melik-Shahnazaryan said he thinks that the border incidents are the direct reflection of Azerbaijan’s foreign and domestic policies. “We know that the US Congress is conducting serious debates on the violations of human rights in Azerbaijan, and those debates may result in consequences not quite desirable for the country,” he said, adding that Azerbaijan is now trying to divert its society’s attention from foreign to military policy issues.

Noting that Azerbaijan’s losses outnumber Armenia’s, the expert said he sees that the country is not now absolutely interested in that. “What is going on, especially along Armenia’s border is, to an extent, a threat also to the West,” he said, not ruling out the possibility of a war fraught with serious consequences.

He further called attention to Azerbaijan’s incumbent defense minister who he said has not shown any demonstrative progress despite being in office for three months. “I think it is that demonstrative indifference that makes Azerbaijan more enthusiastic,” he added.

According to the political analyst Ruben Mehrabyan, Azerbaijan is trying in this way to remind Armenia and the international community of the unacceptability of the status quo around Nagorno-Karabakh. He described the country’s policies as an attempt to distract public attention from real problems.

“Given the terror which Azerbaijan has unleashed against its own citizens [in violation of] its international commitments, it has already received the Western threats that this may lead to an [anti-]Russian sanction package against the Aliyev regime. This exacerbates Azerbaijan’s reactions more, making the official Baku and its political and military leadership more nervous,” he added.

Asked whether he thinks that the West will allow the oil-rich country to violate the status quo, the expert replied, “Azerbaijan will not unilaterally violate the status quo, because its resources will not permit that. Azerbaijan is just trying to blackmail them into steps that would change the status quo,” he noted.

Commenting on the international community’s reaction, Mehrabyan said he doesn’t think that any toughness observed in the general rhetoric is directed to easing the border tensions. “Armenia has now to rely on its own reaction and preventive steps to restrain Baku’s licentiousness,” he added.

Mehrabyan said he doesn’t see any essential international pole interested in a large-scale war,

“Even Azerbaijan itself is not interested in a war, because it sees very well in the oil barrel that it will be the first to get burnt in case of playing with a match,” he added.