Budgeted economic growth needs revising – economist

15:13 • 21.01.15
Economy

Economic growth in Armenia this year depends on copper prices.

If they continue falling, no economic growth should b expected. On the other hand, 2-3 percent economic growth could be expected if copper prices show a rise, economist Artak Manukyan told Tert.am as he commented on the latest forecast by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD).

“Such forecasts are based on a number of scenarios. In Russia’s case, the oil price is an important factor. I should note that such forecasts should be considered with serious reservations because the scenarios they are based on may be changed,” Mr Manukyan said.

The economic growth indicators that are the basis of Armenia’s 2015 state budget and the government-elaborated 2014-2025 development program need essential revision.

“Without elaborating on figures, I think that 3-3.5 percent economic growth would be a serious achievement. I do not see any important factors that could boost economic growth in Armenia. No economic sector could act as locomotive. Our economic growth in recent years has been due to the ‘construction bubble’ and mineral raw materials, especially copper export and rise in world prices. But the copper price is declining now. I do not see any competitive products in Armenia which we could export to world markets thereby promoting economic growth in our country,” the expert said.

Armenia is a Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) member, and EEU member-state Russia is now faced with sanctions.

“Armenia could join countersactions, which means weaker ties with European markets and much higher prices for imported products. Armenia does not show positive domestic factors that could bear the burden. Our economy is incapable of meeting domestic challenges,” Mr Manukyan said.

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