Fitch downgrades Armenia

Fitch Ratings has downgraded Armenia's Long-term foreign and local currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) to 'B+' from 'BB-', Reuters reported.

The Outlook is said to be Stable. The issue ratings on Armenia's senior unsecured foreign and local currency bonds have also been downgraded to 'B+' from 'BB-'. The Country Ceiling has been revised to 'BB-' from 'BB' and the Short-term foreign currency IDR affirmed at 'B'. KEY RATING DRIVERS The downgrade of Armenia's Long-term IDRs reflects the following key rating drivers and their relative weights: High Armenia is highly exposed to the severe economic downturn inRussia (BBB-/Negative), which will weigh heavily on Armenia's balance of payment and growth prospects.

The economy is expected to fall into a mild recession in 2015, with risks tilted to the downside given the worsening economic situation in Russiaand likely negative impact on external imbalances and further depreciation pressures. The current account deficit is expected to widen again in 2015 as a result of a sharp reduction in both remittances inflows and export demand from Russia. Remittances amount to about 15% of GDP and fell by about 30% during the last months of 2014 as 90% of the total come fromRussia. The impact of the fall in oil prices on imports will be largely outweighed by the strengthening of the dollar and a decline in international prices of key Armenian exports. Mining exports, especially copper, account for about half of Armenia's goods exports. Foreign currency reserves at the Central Bank of Armenia (CBA) are expected to continue their downward trend from a relatively low level of USD1.49bn in December 2014. The decline in reserves is primarily due to lower current account receipts and FDI inflows, but also, to a lesser extent, to market intervention by the CBA to limit the depreciation of the Armenian dram.


Foreign currency reserves are expected to represent about three months of current account payments in 2015-16, compared with more than four months on average in 2010-13. Medium Public debt dynamics are highly sensitive to depreciation risks, as about 80% of public debt is foreign currency denominated. The debt-to-GDP ratio rose to nearly 50% in 2014, primarily as a result of exchange rate depreciation. The ratio is expected to remain broadly stable in the coming years but this assumes a stabilisation of the exchange rate. Risks are to the downside. Fiscal policy has been prudent since 2010, and we expect the government to maintain the fiscal deficit below 3% of GDP. Armenia is highly reliant on Russian gas supplies, remittances and military support, leaving it particularly vulnerable to economic and policy changes in Russia. Armenia's accession to the Eurasian Economic Union in January 2015 will further deepen its economic, financial, political and institutional ties with Russia. Despite recent events in Gyumri, we expect the close bilateral relationship to remain and to continue weighing on Armenia's economic and institutional setting. The financial sector is highly dollarised and will therefore be negatively impacted by the depreciation of the Armenian dram. The depreciation and economic downturn are likely to bring about an increase in non-performing loans and to dent the currently robust capital adequacy ratios. The CBA has increased the minimum capital requirements for banks, which could trigger some consolidation in the sector. Armenia's 'B+' IDRs also reflect the following key rating drivers: The CBA raised its refinancing rate twice in recent months to 9.5%. The Armenian dram depreciated by 17% in 2014. Inflation is expected to pick up to 6.5% in 2015 (CBA target range: 2.5%-5.5%) as a result of higher import prices, although relatively moderate pass-through effects should contain the impact.

Armenia benefits from an IMF Extended Fund Facility for 2014-17 worth USD119.1m, which acts as a policy anchor. Armenia is expected to continue fulfilling the performance criteria and to continue to enjoy support from major international financial institutions, primarily to finance large infrastructure projects. Armenia's business environment compares favourably with rating peers, as illustrated by the World Bank's ease of doing business indicators. Armenia's geopolitical environment is a constraint on the rating. The latent conflict with Azerbaijan over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region entails the risk of escalating into a full-scale conflict. No resolution is expected in the short term.