Armenia’s trade with EU up, with EEU down – economist
This January Armenia registered an increase in trade turnover with a number of EU member-states and, on the other hand, a decrease in the country’s trade turnover with the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) member-states.
Economist Artak Manukyan does not consider it strange.
He cites a number of reasons for that, particularly the Russian rouble depreciation and sanctions against Russia.
“Considering exchange risks, exporters prefer export to EU member-states because the Euro has been more stable during the period under review. Rouble depreciation made competition possible,” he said.
Another factor is a difference between products exported to the EEU and EU member-states. The EU mainly imports copper concentrate because it is in steady demand in European markets.
As compared with previous years, copper and gold prices are lower now, and producers are increasing capacities by increasing exports at lower prices. Less foreign currency can be said to come to Armenia.
“We can say it is increasing because the Teghut molybdenum plant has been re-operated,” Mr Manukyan said.
He forecasts a further price rise.
“The Chinese economy will gradually be growing, and the Russian exports of raw materials will cause demand to grow, with lower supply, which will influence prices as well.”
The third factor is seasonality.
“Armenia is mainly exporting agricultural produce to Russia, Belarus and other CIS members. However, raw materials are in constant demand.”
A possible reason is that sanctions do not allow Russian companies to export. For example, a Russian product is exported to Armenia and, later, to the EU at a lower price.
“It is because there may be mechanisms that could be evaded,” Mr Manukyan said.
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