Long-lasting peace on basis of Madrid principles impossible – Arman Melikyan

In an interview with Tert.am, ex-FM of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR) Arman Melikyan voiced an opinion of a much greater threat of resumed hostilities given a new stage of geopolitical developments in our and neighboring regions.

Mr Melikyan, Azerbaijan has lately been escalating border tensions. What is the reason?

Geopolitical developments in our and in the neighboring regions have entered a new stage. Although regular ceasefire violations and escalating tension along the Line of Contact were major components of Azerbaijan’s policy in the past, there is a much greater threat of resumed hostilities now that the situation has undergone qualitative changes.

Is the negotiating process making any headway in the context of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs’ meetings and statements, even at the foreign ministers’ level? If so, what are the expectations? Chief of the Joint Staff of the Russian Armed Force Igor Sergun visited Yerevan, while the Coordinator for International Energy Affairs of the US Department of state visited Baku. Do you see any prerequisites for progress in the negotiations?

We should be realistic. Establishing a long-lasting peace on the basis of the Madrid principles is something impossible. If some of the points of the principles are not revised, and new ideas do no fill the gaps, applying the principles could violate the status quo only if one of the conflicting parties has to declare its diplomatic or military capitulation.

According to reports, the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs are organizing another Armenian-Azerbaijani presidential meeting. What are the expectations?

If the new ideas I have just mentioned are not at least budding, nothing special should be expected from the meeting. Official approaches of Armenia and Azerbaijan to settlement of the conflict are still entirely different from each other – if not antipodal.

The Armenian side keeps on stating Armenia’s interest in a peaceful settlement of the conflict, in contrast to Azerbaijan. Although the international community confirms Armenia’s position, do you think large-scale hostilities are possible?

Each of the conflicting parties has its own tactics - if not for achieving desired results, at least for avoiding a collapse. However, since the conflicting parties are unwilling to conduct an unmediated dialogue, this tactic remains waiting and passive. The situation has now undergone qualitative changes, and Azerbaijan’s threats to resume hostilities may be followed by practical steps.

According to some opinions, the region and Nagorno-Karabakh have come to the foreground along with the Iran-West deal. Do you share the opinions, and what developments could be expected?

Opportunities for the Iran-West rapprochement and cooperation will have their impact on the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process. I would not even be surprised if the United States suddenly accepted an idea of Iranian peacemakers’ involvement in the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process. Another question is that a real settlement must be reached only by political and diplomatic means.