Karabakh blitzkrieg not provoked by Russia – ex-defense official

A former defense minister of Armenia rules out Russian intervention in the recent four-day fighting over Nagorno-Karabakh.

Speaking to Tert.am, Vagharshak Harutyunyan said he has observed a change in Russia’s pro-Azerbaijani stance since the eruption of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in 1992. 

“Whenever we speak of a specific country’s stance, we have to understand the motivation behind such a conduct, and the time context,” he noted.

Harutyunyan said he thinks that Armenia very often pays too much attention to minutiae, forgetful of other countries’ interests. “Let us consider Russia, for example. What is Russia’s interest in this region? War is not absolutely in Russia’s interests. A conflict in this region is a threat to that state. That’s even outlined in Russia’s military doctrine, which says that any conflict with its border peremeters is a threat to Russia, as it may escalate into military operations on their own border. And the same goes for all states,” he said.

As for Azerbaijan’s unwillingness to reach a negotiated conflict settlement, Harutyunyan attributed that that country’s unpreparedness for mutual concessions.

But he ruled out a large-scale war despite Azerbaijan’s affluent oil resources. “The money which Azerbaijan invests in armament is very little. They do not have the necessary system to prepare for a war. Azerbaijan can purchase as many arms and arms supplies as it wishes and from where it wishes, but it needs also to use them in practice. While Azerbaijan brought into use its entire Armed Forces, [Nagorno-]Karabakh relied on its own potential to defend itself. And you know also about Armenia, which is Nagorno-Karabakh’s security guarantor and which is going sign a mutual defense agreement soon to make for a further progress. The Armed Forces of the Republic of Armenia did not take part in the four-day war. So this isn’t our entire potential. Just think of what might happen should Armenia bring into use its entire armament,” Harutyunyan added. 

In his words, Azerbaijan unleashed the blitzkrieg in an attempt to push for a new proposal calling for Nagorno-Karabakh’s handover. The former defense official cited the Azerbaijani ambassador’s statement in Moscow, saying that they expected to hear such a proposal from the Minsk Group co-chairs.