We need fair evaluation of possible strategic losses in four-day war - Armenian analyst

In an interview with Tert.am, Manvel Sargsyan, a Yerevan- based political analyst, commented upon his expectations from the upcoming Armenian-Azerbaijani presidential talks (to be held in Vienna), as well as the two countries’ losses suffered in the four-day war in April. The expert also proposed special steps to create a commission of trustworthy public figures to study the existing problems and analyze the strategic importance of the military positions Armenia might have lost.

Mr Sargsyan, does the scheduled meeting between the Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents promise any changes in a warlike situation as this?

The question is whether [Azerbaijani President Ilham] Aliyev has such a desire. I am not aware of anything of the kind.

But [Armenian President Serzh] Sargsyan does have such a desire. Also, it is important to remember that the president of the Republic of Armenia practically proposed three preconditions, calling upon the co-chairs to take confidence-building measures, commit themselves to making their addressees more specific after  seeing [the outcome of] those confidence-building measures and investigation mechanism, and say who violated the ceasefire.

This is where we see a problem, If [the Armenian leader] set preconditions, and there is additionally an agreement, he must either give specific hints that the conditions were met or explain how to circumvent them. There isn’t anything specific for now, but the society has an interest, and a demand for ruling out talks unless Azerbaijan returns to the positions [it controlled] before April 1. 
 
What part of the positions formerly under our control do you think we have lost?

I don’t know. I have proposed and still keep making proposals for creating a special commission of people who enjoy trust. Why don’t they go there to make decisions and arrive at the necessary conclusions on the ground? Secondly, I don’t understand what their strategic importance is. They might submit the necessary information and sue the defense minister for cheating people. And last but not least, we deal also with the responsibility issue, don’t we? If those positions were of no significance, why then were those guys killed?

Do you share Deputy Foreign Minister Shavarsh Kocharyan’s opinion on the arms embargo for Armenia and Azerbaijan? A Russian political analyst said, for example, that an embargo should not be unilateral.

But it is important to make statements more specific; they say, for example, that no one should sell weapons to ISIL. So once the UN Security Council decides one [power] hasn’t that right, we will not have that problem anymore.