Armenia, Azerbaijan can find alternatives to Russian weapons - Andrey Areshev

In an interview with Tert.am, Russian political scientist Andrey Areshev commented on Armenian Deputy FM Shavarsh Kocharyan’s proposal for an embargo on arms supplies to Armenia and Azerbaijan, an Armenian-Azerbaijani presidential meeting and a possible Germany-mediated Nagorno-Karabakh peace process.

Elaborating on the Armenian Deputy FM’s proposal, Mr Areshev said:

“I think the context of the statement is worth considering carefully. But the most important thing is that I do not think it could be a unilateral embargo. In this case, both Armenia and Azerbaijan would seek alternative ways of acquiring arms, and ensuring unpredictable consequences, as one of the conflicting parties – and you know it very well – keeps on stating its determination to get what it wants.

“And, of course, it is resorting to military means. So, in the long-term prospects, I cannot say anything about whether the idea will prove to be a constructive one – primarily in terms of Armenia’s national security. And, according to reports by Armenia’s Ministry of Defense, Russia has started supplying weapons.”

As to the argument that weapons can be brought from another country if Russia refuses to sell, Mr Areshev said:

“We know it is taking place now. Specifically, Israel has on many occasions offered its weapons to Azerbaijan on commercial prices. Turkey, that country’s key partner, is supplying artillery and missile-launchers, as well as short-range weapons. So we are all aware that Turkey is unlikely to stop supplying arms to Baku.”

As regards the OSCE Minsk Group’s statement on an Armenian-Azerbaijani president meeting in Vienna and a possibility of such a meeting, Mr Areshev said:

“I think that any meeting, no matter how pessimistic observers are, could prove beneficial, as it is an opportunity for a dialogue. I think it is most important under the circumstances. Moreover, I think Baku and Yerevan need permanent contacts to prevent new incidents on the line of contact. However, it is impossible in the current situation. On the other hand, I am sure the mediators will do their utmost to ensure contacts between the conflicting parties, and their efforts are worth supporting.

I hope a meeting will take place and the sides will once again be convinced that any escalation is extremely dangerous.

According to press reports, Russia is handing over some means of settling the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict to Germany, which is expected to tackle the problem in a most serious manner. As regards realpolitik and the reasons for it at the moment, Mr Areshev said:

“German diplomacy has actually taken steps to settle the situation in a number of hotbeds worldwide. But I do not think Germany’s efforts will produce any concrete results as German diplomats are attempting mediation in a number of conflicts. The attempts are most obvious in Donbas. However, despite its economic power, Germany hardly plays a role in any of the conflicts. And the German-Turkish relations are striking evidence in this respect.”

Asked if Germany could show bias given the Turkish community in the country, Mr Areshev said: “First, I am not inclined to think that Russia is going to hand over any means to Germany. I think Turks have disseminated this information. I do not think it is realistic now, and Germany does not have the sufficient resources to favorably influence the matter. It is the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairing countries that have the resources at their disposal.”