Chill in Armenian-Russian relations could force other powers make inroad in Caucasus – Stratfor

Source: Stratfor.com

When it comes to former Soviet countries, few states have remained closer to Russia than Armenia. The Caucasus country hosts 5,000 Russian troops at the 102nd military base in Gyumri, while Russia wields substantial influence over most of Armenia's strategic economic sectors, from energy pipelines to telecommunications. Russia is also Armenia's largest trade partner — accounting for 25 percent of total trade — and it is the largest destination for Armenian migrant workers, whose remittances account for 10 percent of their country's gross domestic product. Yerevan is also a member of both the Eurasian Economic Union and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), Moscow's primary mechanisms for integrating the countries of the former Soviet Union. Recent political shifts in Armenia, however, have thrown the traditionally strong relationship between Yerevan and Moscow into question – raising the possibility that other powers near and far could step in to fill any breach.

The Tensions Testing an Alliance

Armenia's political system experienced a dramatic political shift when the so-called Velvet Revolution – large-scale protests led by opposition leader Nikol Pashinian – forced long-serving Armenian leader Serzh Sargsyan to resign in April 2018. As a result of the tumult, Armenia held early parliamentary elections last month, and Pashinian's Yelk bloc emerged as the country's dominant political force with 70 percent of the vote. 

Russia has observed Pashinian's emergence warily. Moscow staunchly supported Sargsyan's government, and the Kremlin views popular demonstrations both at home and in its immediate vicinity with a great deal of skepticism. Nevertheless, Russia did not intervene in Armenia's mass protests. In part, the Kremlin chose not to do so because Pashinian carefully restricted his criticism of the Armenian government to the domestic issue of corruption, while repeatedly emphasizing his support for Yerevan's alignment with Moscow on strategic and security affairs.

Nonetheless, tensions between the two have grown since Pashinian's rise to power. One reason is his decision to target former Armenian leaders for repressing protests during the 2008 presidential elections. Already, the prime minister has filed criminal charges against former Armenian President Robert Kocharyan and former army chief Yuri Khachaturov. The latter became chief of the Moscow-led CSTO in 2016. But the charges have forced his resignation – angering Russia in the process.

Elsewhere, tensions have grown over Russia's military presence in Armenia. In July 2018, Russian military forces conducted snap drills near the Armenian village of Panik, precipitating protests by residents and drawing a reprimand from Pashinian, who chided Moscow for not giving locals advance notice of the exercises. Since then, demonstrations against Russia's military activities in the country have become increasingly frequent, particularly after a Russian soldier was accused of killing an Armenian woman in Gyumri early last month. (The killing sparked specific protests in front of the Russian Embassy in Yerevan on Dec. 25, 2018, as well as another demonstration in Gyumri on Jan. 12.) Although the rallies have drawn only a couple hundred people at most — a far cry from the tens of thousands who took to the streets with Pashinian last year — they nevertheless reflect a growing concern among ordinary Armenians over Russia's military presence.