Trump can’t stop Putin from poaching US allies – Foreign Policy

By Mark Simadovsky, Edward Fishman

On July 17, the United States finally decided to suspend Turkey’s participation in the F-35 fighter jet program, a move made in retaliation for Turkey’s acceptance of the Russian-made S-400 missile system. The US decision was a fitting culmination to a drawn-out saga, which may well poison US-Turkish ties for years to come.

It also laid bare the Trump administration’s failure to effectively implement one of the key provisions of the landmark Russia sanctions law enacted in 2017, the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA). Ultimately, the Trump administration’s own mixed signals contributed to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s calculation that he could proceed with the controversial acquisition without the risk of significant sanctions or damage to U.S.-Turkish ties. 

A familiar foe is lurking behind the current row between the United States and Turkey as Russia’s $2.5 billion sale will pay substantial dividends for Russian foreign policy and will undermine U.S. interests. Russia’s sale of the S-400 gives it leverage over Turkish foreign policy, drives a wedge between Washington and Ankara, gives Moscow a strategic foothold in a key NATO country, and complicates U.S. efforts to gain Turkish cooperation in Syria, Iran, and Venezuela. 

Some of the blame lies with the Trump administration, whose reluctance to implement congressionally mandated Russia sanctions and confused rhetoric on Turkey gave Erdogan the confidence to proceed with the acquisition. While effective deterrence requires a credible threat of consequences—in this case, harsh sanctions—it also requires unambiguous communication and consistent diplomacy. The Trump administration fell short on all three counts, and its haphazard and unusually restrained signaling on Russia policy undermined its deterrence efforts.

Russia also played its cards well. Moscow responded to Turkey’s shootdown of a Russian fighter jet in 2015 first with sticks by cutting economic ties and then by offering Erdogan carrots with vocal support when the Turkish president felt most threatened after an attempted coup in July 2016. After the failed coup, Russian President Vladimir Putin gradually offered to restart dialogue and economic ties, with the S-400 deal agreed to by Putin and Erdogan in 2017 as the sweetener.

Putin knew the S-400 catered to multiple interests of a Turkish president who was consolidating power and growing wary of the United States, including providing a strong defense capability that could help Erdogan defend his regime against future threats, a lever to use against the United States to showcase Erdogan’s displeasure over worsening ties and perceived tacit U.S. support for the coup attempt, and a means of strengthening Turkey’s bargaining power with Washington over Syria and other regional issues. 

Where Erdogan miscalculated was underestimating Washington’s reluctance to allow the most advanced aircraft in the world, the F-35 fighter jet, to be introduced into an environment where the S-400 could drastically undermine the F-35 and other U.S. assets already deployed throughout Turkey. He didn’t anticipate that Washington might cut Turkey out of the F-35 development program.

The F-35’s capabilities are a tightly guarded U.S. secret, shared only with the closest allies. Turkey’s deployment of an S-400 system, which would likely operate in close proximity to Turkish F-35s, would give the S-400 system the ability to gather intelligence on how the F-35 operates. That’s because the S-400 would likely need to be connected to several systems, such as a tactical data link called Link 16 (used by NATO) and Identification Friend or Foe systems, which would work to ensure the Turkish F-35s could fly near the Turkish S-400 system without being shot down. 

With Russian nationals likely maintaining, supporting, or even operating the Turkish S-400 system, this could allow Russia the ability to gain intelligence on the F-35..Most experts admit the Turkish decision to procure the S-400 inevitably proved to be a conflict of interest and doomed Turkey’s ability to serve as a trusted partner on the F-35 program. 

In the end, the Trump administration correctly understood that the F-35 had no place in Turkey if the S-400 was being operated there and acted appropriately by ending Turkey’s participation in the program. Turkey could not have it both ways; it could not be the “fox guarding the hen house” by acquiring an S-400 system that could conveniently take advantage of its operations in Turkey to spy on the F-35’s capabilities and vulnerabilities while also flying the plane.