Euro struggles against dollar as attention turns to Fed
The euro struggled to make headway against a resilient dollar on Wednesday and was stuck near $1.11, with forex markets mostly calm ahead of a crucial meeting of central bankers later this week, Reuters reports.
With markets rushing to price significant easing from central banks in the United States and Europe, the outlook for euro/dollar will depend largely on whether or not policymakers live up to those expectations.
Officials from major central banks will gather at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on Friday with markets focused on a scheduled speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
His comments are of particular interest after last week’s inversion of the US yield curve - widely regarded as a recession signal - boosted expectations the Fed would lower interest rates at its September policy meeting. Faced with rising risks to the US economy, the central bank in July cut rates for the first time since the financial crisis.
“In the big scheme of things, markets are relatively range-bound, with the focus on Jackson Hole later this week,” said Manuel Oliveri, a strategist at Credit Agricole.
The euro was last down 0.1% at $1.1092 EUR=EBS. The dollar, measured against a basket of currencies, rose 0.1% to 98.265 .DXY.
Oliveri expects the euro to strengthen toward $1.12 by September, even though the European Central Bank will struggle to exceed investor expectations for cutting rates.
Talk of more fiscal spending in Germany, and the hit to the U.S. yield advantage from falling interest rates, should support the euro, he added.
“Fiscal stimulus is a positive for the currency,” he said.
The dollar has also been supported by talk of more spending - President Donald Trump said on Tuesday his administration was considering potential tax cuts on wages as well as profits from asset sales.
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