Robert Kocharyan: I see high chances of snap elections this year – Yerevan Today

16:15 • 29.01.20

Politics

Second President Robert Kocharyan has responded to Yerevan Today, submitting his written comments through correspondence coordinated by his office.

Below are excerpts from the interview:

Do you share the prime minister's admiration at the economic indicators? What are your forecasts on the economic year and the existing problems?

The causes of the prime minsiter's admiration are known probably only to him. I will elaborate on issues relating to the economy, as it is really possible to address specific results reflecting last year's achievement.

a) A couple of words about the structure of the economy:

Just as a reminder it is worth mentioning that the government resolutely announced its intention to cut down the raw component, develop agriculture with a high efficiency, step up the development sector, as well as boost the knowledge-based export-oriented branches and digital economy. What we saw last year was just the contrary. The share of the mining industries in the economy increased while the agricultural output declined, with the import and export balance and the trade and the services sector seeing a growth at the expense of the gaming industries and consumer loans - rather than the economy.

The development boom promised by the prime minister finished without even marking its start, as the sector grew with little paces compared to the economy in general. The budgetery expenses were underperformed in terms of the capital expenditures. The state debt increased amid the continuing flow of people in Armenia.

b) About the economic growth:

The economy did really see a growth but in most economists' estimation, it has fallen short to secure the 7.5% target. That growth, according to Hrant Bagratyan [a former pinister], was 3.5%, which is actually more plausible. The available statistics arouses suspicions, as the economic growth has not practically affected the majority’s living standards. Additionally, the reduced transportation and power production rates are not in line with the logic behind the economic growth. What accounts for the deforming statistics is also the huge ‘bubble’ in the economy, which is due to the import of cars (aimed at latent re-exports) contingent very often on the taxation differences with the EAEU countries. With the domestic market demand being around 30,000, as many as 189,000 cars were imported to the country last year. That exaggerated the basic economic indicators, making it impossible to objectively evaluate the real situation. This is why the figures reflecting the trade and services volumes need a serious reinterpretation now. And the drastic growth in the consumer loan portfolio is largely conditioned by this very factor. This accounts also for the overperformance of the tax revenues. To have a clear picture of the economy it is important to estimate the impact of the imported cars upon the GDP generation rates, taking into consideration the multiplying effect. That, in more likelihood, applied to other products where again the taxation balance created a speculative busines motivation. This unique ″bonus-gift″ left from the Republican past has now expired though there are chances that there will be a certain intertia in the first months of the current year. The resulting economic growth is positive nonetheless, but there isn't any reason for to admire [the dynamics].

c) Forecasts for the current year:

The budget for the current year envisages a 4.9% economic growth. Under conditions of international economic growth forecasts of 3.5%, the authorities must be really ashamed of even making a public appearance, especially after promises of a ″skyrocketing″ economic growth. The year is not going to be easy as the saved and attracted sums will be directed to the purpose of serving the impressive foreign debts. So the government will be forced to attract extra resources. There will be no investments unless the revolution ceases to be the brand of ″New Armenia″ to re-establish trust in the banking secret and put an end to the manufacturing abuses and the ongoing talks about property redistribution, changing the atmosphere of a total hatred in the country. The smooth scale of profit growth will widen the gap between the rich and poor, increasing the social tension. So a year of zero progress is practically what may be our best-case scenario.

What made last year remarkable were the ministerial [and not only] bonuses paid secretly from the society ...

The authorities, apparently, perceived the public euphoria as permission for permissiveness, which practically increased the corrupt appetite among the revolutionary activists. With the euphoria having now faded away, appetite remains the only thing left.

As regards the bonuses, the entire scheme of remunerating the state appartus was disrupted in violation of the laws. The bonuses for ministers and their deputies cross the reasonable limits without the pivotal indicators of effectiveness being in place to associate the said bonuses with the specific outcomes of work. This kind of “sponger” motivation spoils the government, with the injustice demolishing the entire state apparatus. What leaves us resented is the fact that the abuse is going on against the backdrop of closing down institutions which are really sensitive for the society.

Just for your knowledge I can say that the tremendous bonuses given to government officials, their increasing travel expenses and the means spent on the lavish repairs of their villas alone would be enough for modernizing all the boarding schools, orphanages, maternity hospitals and other healthcare institutions, which are now close to shutdown. And that would ensure their exploitation in the five years to come. It is hard for me to give a description - within the normative language - of what is going on, so I am leaving it to the reader.

Is a new phase of political developments predictable now, and what are its expected manifestations? What can, in your estimation, be the main domestic political development of 2020?

The autumn was politically active so we can now definitely insist that the ‘consensus minus one’ formula is now principally a done deal. The new political landscape will eventually take its shape this year, as well as the agenda will be finalized to consolidate the politically active citizens.

The euphoria has understandably faded away, but the authorities, formed under its strong pressure, are in place. The parliament, as could be normally expected, is the government’s imperfectly developed adjunct which is unable to execrcise the constitutional function of oversight over the executive authorities. Political processes are going on outside the National Assembly, where the country’s political agenda is being developed, The parliament’s configuration will this year eventually stop reflecting the public sentiments, which will imply a loss of legitimacy. This fact itself will make snap parliamentary elections the imperitave and supreme political demand of time. All this will take place against the background of a deteriorating socio-economic conditions in the country and the government's inability to fulfill the promises given. As to whether or not the elections will be conducted this year depends on the intensiveness of the political process, the citizens’ engagement, the stability of the ruling political force and the authorities’ errors. I see rather high chances for such a turn of events. Eccentric press conferences like the one which the prime miniser gave in Kapan only accelerate the process.

What would you say about your role in the opposition despite the arrest?

The authorities, with their essence and actions, returned me to politics. By keeping me in custody, they are successfully making me a symbol of resisting their awkward manners of state administration. I was by destiny given the chance to lead the Karabakh liberation struggle which symolized the rebirth of national consciousness. When the movement had just taken its roots, I managed to escape prison by some miracle. It is by the irony of fate now that our authorities, which are keeping me in detention, are bridging the gap left behind by the Azeris. History knows of inspiring examples of successful political struggles led from prison [cell]s. I am probably destined to play a very important role in liberating the country from vicious authorities that crushing our national identity down.

Can the fight for freedom, led by your supporters and team members, develop into a political movement, and what could be the role of the commission coordinated by [former Labor and Social Affairs Minister] Aghvan Vardanyan?

That's absolutely possible. People's firm belief in their rightfulness and the readiness for fight and deprivation can potentially set a condition for any political campaign. There are many people of the kind in our camp. Joint work brings people closer, shaping the team concept and creating an experience of mutual cooperation. Uniting in an organizational structure, they become a political force.″

Armenian News - Tert.am