Russian-Turkish confrontation in Syria's Idlib may spur regional tension – expert

The Russian-Turkish confrontation in the Syrian province of Idlib poses real regional hazards in terms of serious escalations, according to Kayts Minasyan, an expert at the Paris Institute of Political Studies.

In an interview with Tert.am, he cited particularly the hardline policies pursued by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad towards re-establishing control over the disputed territories. “First, [Russian President Vladimir] Putin and [Turkish President Recep Tayyip] Erdogan are nationalists who act relying on the balance of powers. Also the Bashar-al-Assad regime will do everything possible to re-establish control over the territories. Hence the risk of an escalation is real indeed even if I am personally skeptical about that,” he noted.  

The expert said he also believes that Moscow is now pursuing an “impermissible strategy” by maintaining the dialogue with Turkey on the one hand "while also offering support to the Syrian army." “Turkey is thus facing a real hazard,” he said, agreeing at the same time that neither Turkey or Russia desire a war scenario.

Minasyan said he now expects a new tactical plan to be considered between the two countries’ leaders. “I believe a call for a ceasefire will be voiced at the March 5 meeting, but that is being rapidly breached by the Syrian Army which has no interest at all in stopping there. Every role-player knows that.”.

Minasyan described the developments in Syria as a kind of Russian warning to Turkey against any kind of aggression, particularly in Lybia.

Addressing Armenia’s role and the possible regional impact on the country, the analyst agreed that the tensions in the Middle East may have their major (against the backdrop of the Russian-Turkish cooperation going hand in hand with a mutual rivalry).

“The South Caucasus is the underlying subject of bargaining between the two empires. Is a Turkey-induced Azerbaijani provocation possible against Armenia? It is, but I do not really believe in that. Russia and Turkey do not want to open a new front in the Caucasus. Espcially, Russia is not willing to succumb to Turkey’s provocations to push ahead with a new agenda. If Turkey launches new anti-Russian operations in the region, Moscow’s reaction will be strong indeed,” he said, evaluating Armenia’s reaction to the ongoing developments absolutely correct "in both strategic and political aspects”.