Karabakh peace talks 'in deep deadlock' amid Turkish-Azerbaijani plan to oust Minsk Group from process - diplomat

In an interview with Tert.am, Ambassador Arman Navasardyan shared his pessimistic forecasts over the expected developments in the Nagorno-Karabakh (Artsakh) peace talks, warning of a joint Turkish-Azerbaijani plan to oust the OSCE Minsk Group from the process.

Citing the mission's recent statement, addressed to both Armenia and Azerbaijan, the diplomat called attention, in particular, to the appeal for reducing the "active hostilities" and returning to "substantive negotiations."

"I think the Turkish policies are directed to the co-chairmanship - given that the Turks themselves initially wanted to be a participant in that process. Hence Turkey and Azerbaijan are now jointly doing their best to prevent the Minsk Group from reaching any result. [The mission] is thus doomed to being ousted from the process, a scenario that poses real hazards to us," he said, admitting at the same time that the co-chairmanship has, over the past years, limited the scope of its activity to only making statements.

Navasardyan also agreed that Azerbaijan's statements, made "from the positions of strength", reveal that country's unwillingness to reach a negotiated settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. "My personal analyses reveal that the military actions launched in the Tavush region were part of process plotted in Turkish-Azerbaijani headquarters. And that has far-reaching plans and objectives," he said, hinting also the possibility of a joint plan to shift the hotbed of the conflict from Artsakh to the Armenian-Azerbaijani border.

"This is a plotted policy aiming to demonstrate that Artsakh is not an issue worthy of any attention at all."

"When the issue is shifted to the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, it is an attempt to exclude the presence of the United States and France to enable Turkey to confront directly Russia," Navasardyan said, pointing out to in-depth geopolitical calculations.

The diplomat said he believes that Turkey's engagement in the process was like a "pink dream" for that country in the past years. In his words, the " deeply deadlocked process" is Azerbaijan's final decision.

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Azerbaijani combat troops launched series of attacks against north-eastern Armenian military outposts on July 12. In the early morning hours, the Ministry reported an incursion attempt by several Azerbaijani servicemen who wanted to cross into Tavush in a jeep car. After a warning by the Armenian side, they returned to the starting positions, leaving the vehicle on Armenia's territory.

The adversary repeated the border transgression attempt about an hour later, opening fire in the same direction, but was subsequently suppressed and pushed back with losses. Armenia reported no casualties at the time.

Azerbaijan kept the north-eastern outposts under fire also on July 13 and 14. The situation was reported to be relatively calm the next day.

The fighting continued at random occurrences also on July 16. The situation calmed down afterwards. Armenia has overall suffered four losses in the wake of the cross-border violence provoked by the adversary. Azerbaijan reported 11 casualties.

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The Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh broke out in 1988 when the Armenian majority of the then autonomous region declared its intention to break away from Azerbaijan. In a referendum held on December 10, 1991 (days before the collapse of the USSR), the population voted overwhelmingly in favor of independence (99.89%). The move was followed by Azerbaijan’s large-scale military operations against Nagorno-Karabakh and seven neighboring regions. The armed violence left around 25,000-30,000 people dead; thousands were internally displaced. The Ceasefire Accord, which went into effect in May 1994, formally put an end to the armed attacks in the conflict zone, but sporadic fighting in the area breaks out time and again. Since 1994, the OSCE Minsk Group, a mission co-chaired by France, the United States and Russia, has been spearheading the efforts towards  a peaceful solution to the conflict. .

The hostilities escalated to an unprecedented degree in April 2016 in what was later dubbed a Four-Day War. In the early hours of April 1, 2016, Azerbaijan's armed forces launched heavy offensives along the Line of Contact,  provoking large-scale confrontations with the Defense Army of Nagorno-Kkarabakh. The adversary also shelled civilian settlements, particularly the southern and north-eastern regions of Hadrut and Marakert.

A ceasefire was reached on 5 April between the chiefs of the armed forces of Azerbaijan and Armenia in Moscow. The Nagorno-Karabakh authorities also welcomed the verbal agreement.