Erdogan 'sought to probe for Putin's attitude' to possible pressures on Armenia - Russian expert

Hripsime Hovhannisyan

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's move to hold telephone negotiations with his Russian counterpart was linked to his concerns over the reported tensions along Armenia's border with Azerbaijan, says Alexander Krylov, a senior researcher at the Moscow-based Institute of World Economy and International Relations (Russian Academy of Sciences) and the president of the Scientific Society of Caucasus Studies.

In an interview with Tert.am, the expert also shared his concern over the planned Turkish-Azerbaijani military exercises in Nakhichevan, agreeing that it may exacerbate the situation even further.

"It is certainly important for Erdogan to have the understanding how far-reaching the conflict with Russia may be or to what extent he is allowed to exert pressure upon Armeni,a and what Russia will tolerate at all.

"By making the call, Erdogan was apparently trying to probe for [Russian President Vladimir] Putin's attitude towards all that," he noted.

Meantime the expert said he believes that the Russian leader "pursues an extremely negative attitude" amid the current processes. "I cannot say for sure whether or not military exercises will take place in Nakhichevan, but I believe everything was clearly stated, considering the ongoing Armenian-Azerbaijani pogroms across globe," he said, describing the acts of violent as a provocation rather than a manifestation of ethnic hatred.

"I think that topic was considered too," Krylov added.

During their telephone conversation earlier this week, the Russian and Azerbaijani leaders discussed the recently reported border tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Four Armenian servicemen were killed in the violent clashes provoked after an incident by Azerbaijan's military. Azerbaijan reported 11 losses.

Commenting on the Russia-Turkey relations, Krylov admitted that Moscow attaches priority to its developing partnership with Ankara. He cited the  Montreux Convention Regarding the Regime of the Straits as a key international instrument outlining the two countries' shared interest (in not turning the Black See into a zone of regional states' influence). "Yes, Turkey and Russia may have policy differences in the Caucasus, but their interests coincide when it comes to this issue," he added.

Addressing the allegations that Russia is improving its relations with Turkey, seeking a future cooperation "at the expense of Armenia", Krylov dismissed the allegations as highly "propagandistic".

"Russia never builds its interests at the sacrifice of others. And Armenia too, is very important for it in the South Caucasus. The statements that Russia may replace Armenia for Turkey and Azerbaijan are propagandistic as I said for people who have such fears. But there isn't anything of the kind," he said, reaffirming Russia's role as Armenia's strategic ally.

Asked whether Armenia should beware of Turkey's future actions, Krylov agreed that the situation is turning increasingly tense in the light of the joint Turkish-Azerbaijani exercises.

"Additionally, mercenaries are being recruited for Azerbaijan in Libya, Syria and Ukraine. They are obviously preparing for a military action either on the border of Karabakh or along the entire border of Armenia. No sabotage is ruled out here, but there are low chances for large-scale military actions, especially on the internationally acknowledged border between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The CSTO [Collective Security Treaty Organization] will immediately take action, with the obligation to defend Armenia becoming effective for both for that institution and Russia," he said, warning of higher hazards for Nagorno-Karabakh (to which the said guarantees are not applicable).

Asked to comment on the repeatedly voiced concerns over "problematic" Armenian-Russian relations (in light of Russia's alleged distrust of the current Armenian government or failure to react to the recent cross-border clashes), Krylov agreed that it isn't good at all when Armenia's domestic political problems have their reflection on the two countries' relations.

"The relations, as a matter of fact, are developing very constructively. Armenian sappers in Syria work in collaboration with Russia, a step that no CSTO country has so far committed itself to take. Of course, there are problems in the bilateral relations, which is quite normal. What is bad, though, is the domestic political situation in Armenia impacts the relationship between the two countries," Krylov added.