Liberated regions 'remain the sole guarantee' for Artsakh's security in future - political analyst

Davit Sargsyan

There isn't absolutely any real guarantee that after the upcoming US-brokered talks, the enemy will not keep on violating the ceasefire in the Nagorno-Karabakh (Artsakh) conflict zone, Dr. Armen Ayvazyan, a Yerevan-based political analyst and historian, said Wednesday, warning of further threats to regional security.

In an interview with ArmNews TV channel, the expert emphasized the Armenian army's paramount role in enforcing a steady ceasefire, dismissing any hope that the ongoing war will end after a formal signature of specific documents.

"Ceasefire arrangements were concluded also in the period of the first war, but the enemy did, nonetheless, manage to rearrange its positions to launch further attacks. There isn't any visible pressure by either Russia or the West, yet this situation is likely to change in just a matter of days. The spokesman for the European Union condemned the strikes against Gandzak [i.e. - Ganja, Azerbaijan's second largest city], but he never spoke about the shelling of the [civilian] settlements in Artsakh," Ayvazyan said, admitting the impossibility of the kind of remark without France's formal consent.

Meantime, the analyst agreed that the difficulty for Armenia to abandon the compromise-based settlement scenario (a policy pursued since 1992) places the country "at the bottom of the scale" amid Azerbaijan's maximalist ambitions. "The liberated territories [the seven regions surrounding the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic] are a vital part of Artsakh's security. It now rests with us to identify our basic demand to later adopt a negotiating position accordingly. If status is claimed to be the vital component, then it is possible to cede territories in order to get it. But Azerbaijan has permanently rejected the thesis of granting a specific status to Artsakh," he noted.

The expert proposed a shift in the priority focus from the status component, ruling out the permissibility of leaving the liberated regions under Azerbaijani control (even if that country accepts Artsakh's independence). "Status is just a document, whereas lands offer a specific guarantee. In terms of military security, everything is clear: once you cede five regions, major problems arise, with the frontline extending further and the delivery of supplies becoming complicated - along with the population's decreasing trust in future security. The enemy insists on the handover of five - and later also of two - regions. This has been the model underlying the negotiations since the [19]90s, and it would amount to the de-Armenianization of Artsakh," Ayvazyan said.  

Meantime, he hinted the real likelihood of an Azerbaijani aggression against Karabakh (as an independent state entity) by way of organizing an easy attack. "Territory is the main substantial component for us, which should be an end result. That's the only security guarantee. The negotiations today should focus on ensuring the security of not only Artsakh but also Armenia. Turkey and Azrbaijan do not conceal their plans to bring the Armenian Genocide to completion".

Elaborating further on the history of the Nagorno-Karabakh land dispute, Ayvazyan noted that Turkey has been a conflicting party since the early 1990s (a fact which he said Armenia hasn't accepted until now). "Turkey is a direct participant; hence we need to insist on excluding that country from the OSCE Minsk Group. Turkey managed in its time to present all the demands with a perfectly elaborated package, [calling for] both material and territorial, as well as moral compensation. Today, actually, there are four conflicting sides: Turkey, Azerbaijan, Artsakh and Armenia. And that changes the entire logic behind the negotiations. The issue dealing with the Azerbaijani-Armenian refugees, for instance, should be incorporated into a comprehensive settlement package," he added.