Trump's reference to Kosovo 'unrelated to Karabakh' - political analyst

16:30 • 26.10.20

Politics

President Donald Trump's reference to the Kosovo precedent deals largely with that country's trade relations with Serbia, according to Suren Sargsyan, a Yerevan-based political analyst specializing in US studies.

The expert made the remark in an interview with Tert.am as he commented upon the US president's address made after latest humanitarian ceasefire reached between the Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers in Washinton.

Meantime he ruled out any possibility for the United States to recognize Nagorno-Karabakh (Artsakh) in the visible future, highlighting the president's constitutional authority to exercise decision-making functions in foreign policy affairs.

"I don't think that Trump has seriously delved deep into the Kosovo case law practice to study in detail to what extent Kosovo can be a legally applicable precedent for Artsakh.

"What he virtually meant was the recently reached agreement between Kosovo and Serbia over establishing trade relations. So his reference to Kosovo was made in that context," he said, not ruling out the possibility of using the remark in the future political and diplomatic discourse.

Sargsyan said he sees a real opportunity for the Armenian lobbyists in Washington to actively work with Congress members in the future to push ahead with anti-Azerbaijani and anti-Turkish sanctions. "There are [legal] initiatives in both congressional chambers on imposing disciplinary measures on both Turkey and Azerbaijan. They will, in all likelihood, be in the form of statements and resolutions, fixing by definition the aggressor, as well as the fact that Turkey offered a full support to Azerbaijan over the period, supplying that country with both manpower from the Turkish Army and Syrian terrorist groups," he added.

The analyst admitted, nonetheless, the possibility of applying the case law principle, agreeing that the Kosovo precedent is very similar to Artsakh (especially in light of the "secession for salvation" formula, a thesis very actively discussed in the recent period).

Meantime he hinted slight chances for the House of Representatives or separate states to pass resolutions or other measures recognizing the independence of Artsakh.

"But the foreign policy implementation is, under the Constitution, vested exclusively in the president and the administration. Hence, I do not see any prospect here," he added.

Asked to comment on the possibility of future steps to react to the repeated ceasefire violations, Sargsyan said he believes that the issue is entirely in the domain of the OSCE Minsk Group mission's reputation. Noting that all the three co-chairs of the Minsk Group repeatedly exert pressure upon Azerbaijan (having the perfect knowledge that it is the disobedient side), the analyst also agreed that President Ilham Aliyev "still manages to easily sidestep those pressures", receiving backing from his Turkish counterpart

"This is why I think the international community will continue stepping up pressure upon Azerbaijan, as this is not just a blow to the Minsk Group co-chairmanship format but also a direct blow to the reputation of the co-chairing countries' leaders. And that, logically, is not going to be forgiven and is sure, at any stage, to have its consequences for Azerbaijan," Sargsyan said.

But the expert dismissed a major impact on the US-Turkey relations, highlighting both the multi-layer character of the two countries' partnership and Washington's understanding of the strategic alliance with a NATO member country.

news.view.author Amalya Arakelyan