Arrangements on Karabakh 'will be respected in the short run' - Russian expert

The arrangements on Nagorno-Karabakh (Artsakh) will be respected in the short run, with the Baku authorities being overall satisfied with the recently signed deal, a Moscow-based political analyst has said, highlighting the mutual advantages and disadvantages linked to the November 9 ceasefire.

Speaking to RIA Novosti, Vadim Mukhanov, a leading scholar at the Caucasus Department of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO),  agreed that Yerevan "has no resource for revanchist policies", with Azerbaijan facing the need to handle its "territorial gains".

"As regards the tripartite statement, it is, all in all, in a process of implementation. As far as its pivotal provisions, i.e. - those dealing with the ceasefire regime, are concerned, they are overall being respected," he said

Meantime the expert admitted that Nagorno-Karabakh's status remains unresolved, with neither Armenia nor Azerbaijan having recognized its independence. Mukhanov noted that Karabakh still manages to maintain a territorial control over its main city, Stepanakert, and other urban settlements "despite the losses suffered".

"And what about their population's fate? Those issues were not thoroughly outlined in the statement. That statement pursued a completely different objective," he said, adding that the uncertainty over the status will continue.  

Mukanov said he expects the statement to be strictly followed in the near future.

 "It is advantageous in the short run, particularly to the Azerbaijani side. [Baku] is to resolve a range of issues dealing with the territories that passed under their control subject to the statement. The problem of re-settlers and the socio-economic reclamation issues are to be handled properly," he noted.

Agreeing that the statement is not absolutely in Yerevan's interests, Mukhanov noted that "the Armenian side has neither strength nor capacities to re-engage in conflict settlement to re-claim its revanchist positions".

"Along with the defeat in Karabakh, Armenia also plunged into a heavy domestic political crisis; hence Yerevan will initially deal with resolving that crisis before addressing [the situation in] Karabakh. [Prime Minister] Nikol Pashinyan and his team are facing the primary task to maintain power," the analyst explained.  

Dismissing any chances of large-scale military actions in the foreseeable future, the expert nonetheless did not rule out the possibility of revanchist ambitions in the long-run. "There is such a likelihood," he added.