Azerbaijan, Armenia will link security priorities to Russia 'from now on', says former defense official

Artak Zakaryan, a former deputy minister of defense and a former lawmaker from the Republican Party of Armenia (RPA), has shared his forecasts on the regional developments in the light of recent geopolitical challenges, predicting Russia's increasing influence on both Armenia and Azerbaijan in the wake of Joe Biden's election as the US president.

Davtyan presented his analysis in a Facebook post where he also questioned Biden's real willingness to focus attention on the South Caucasus and Central Asia (despite the plans to form a highly trained staff experienced in working with former USSR countries).

Noting that the radical changes on the global arena are vivid especially in our region, the politician stressed Russia's paramount role as a superpower "pursuing a daily interest" in the stability and predictability of the South Caucasus and Central Asia.

Another crucial factor to which he called attention was former National Security Adviser John Bolton's 2018 visit to Armenia as "the only US presence in the region over the past three years". Davtyan referred particularly to the recommendation for "breaking the historical stereotypes" in resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict (which he said worked to Armenia's disadvantage).

"The [second] Artsakh war started at the most heated phases of the US presidential race; hence the United States had practically a zero role -  not counting the spontaneous statements made occasionally by President [Donald] Trump and Secretary of State [Mike] Pompeo.

"The Russia Federation presently is the only superpower that has managed to prove its unreserved influence on, and dominant role in, the South Caucasus. Will the Biden administration reconcile itself with that reality? It is hard to say for it now; yet the United States will certainly make attempts to 'revitalize' the OSCE Minsk Group. It is obvious that both Armenia and Azerbaijan will, for understandable reasons, link their security priorities only to Russia from now on. The US, certainly, has Turkey's trump card to return to the South Caucasus as a possible way to step up influence upon Azerbaijan. As to what extent Erdogan's Turkey will be willing to have its direct engagement in the Russia-US confrontation, it is hard to predict it either," he wrote.