Nagorno-Karabakh ‘is not a priority’ for EU member states – Amanda Paul

The European Union does not seem to have a serious engagement in the Nagorno-Karabakh (Artsakh) peace process, according to Amanda Paul, a senior policy analyst at the European Policy Center (EPC).

In an interview with Tert.am, she spoke of Europe’s "paralyzed state" during the recent war, highlighting instead the "decisive role" played by Turkey and Russia.

“As of today I do not see the active involvement of the West (EU-US) in the process. During the war the EU was paralyzed and was able to do little other than issue statements of concern. Russia and Turkey, acted and decided outcomes.  Today both the EU and US are consumed with other issues, in particular the COVID-19 pandemic along with other pressing international topics.  For example the Iranian nuclear deal (JCPOA) and relations with other players, namely, Russia, China and Turkey.  In the EU, other than some discussions in the European Parliament over what the EU could/should be doing, Nagorno-Karabakh is not a priority for EU member states,” she said.

Asked to comment on Foreign Minister Ara Aivazian’s recent remark, voiced at the meeting with OSCE Chairperson-in-Office Ann Lynde, on the need of a “stronger OSCE Minsk Group”, the expert said she doesn’t think that the mission, with its three co-chairs acting as mediators in the conflict settlement process, played any role over the period to push for any progress.

“The group hardly played a role during the war. Russia monopolized the process, leading the efforts to bring about a ceasefire. The future of the Minsk Group remains unclear.  Russia believes that there remains a role for the Minsk Group and wants to keep it alive.  Indeed Russia maintains that the Minsk Group’s basic principles are the foundation of the ceasefire agreement. However, despite the fact that there still needs to be negotiations about the future normalization of relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and the Minsk Group would seem to be the only format,  it will be difficult.  The Minsk Group has suffered a lot of reputational damage, particularly France in Azerbaijan.  Baku does not view France as an honest mediator anymore. Another European state should replace France,” she added.

The European expert said she also sees Armenia’s continuing support to the Minsk Group format, and expectations of stronger international efforts towards reaching a political settelement. 

“Armenia continues to support the OSCE Minsk Group and clearly wants the international community to play a strong role in the next steps to transform the current ceasefire agreement into a political settlement.  However, there is no prospect of this any time soon.  Armenia does not seem to have clear strategies for anything going forward due to the political crisis.  Yerevan needs to get its domestic situation in order.  The political crisis needs to be ended as soon as possible as it is very damaging.  A new election is the only way to resolve the dissent and division,” Ms. Paul added.