OSCE Minsk Group may embark on active diplomacy after snap elections in Armenia – Russian expert

In an interview with Tert.am, Russian political analyst Stanislav Tarasov commented on the likelihood of the OSCE Minsk Group’s renewed efforts in the Nagorno-Karabakh peace talks, predicting real chances of serious work after the snap parliamentary elections in Armenia.

Not ruling out the possibility of the foreign minister’s replacement, the expert admitted that the existing uncertainties create a kind of inconvenience in the entire process.

In his words, the problems in the US-Russia relations do not absolutely affect the Minsk Group format which acts as a “coordinated platform” in the negotiations, appearing with joint statements from time to time. “It is a unique situation. But it is hard to predict how the situation will develop given that the expert circles in the US criticize their country, which did not have practically have an influence on the Nagorno-Karabakh war. Their interpretations suggest that the trilateral statement and the peacekeepers’ presence contribute to Russia’s increasing influence. Peacekeepers were supposed to be there, but they were not supposed to have an international status,” he noted.

As another crucial factor in the peace process, Tarasov cited Armenia’s refusal to recognize the independence Nagorno-Karabakh, thereby making Russia acknowledge the territories under its peacekeeping forces’ control as Azerbaijani territories. “Also the peacekeepers’ status is not recognized internationally. It is recognized only under the trilateral agreement,” he said, noting that the existing political context opens up opportunities for resolving the issue through direct negotiations between Moscow and Baku (along with the status of Nagorno-Karabakh).  

“The situation is rather complicated indeed, as Yerevan believes the problem isn't resolved yet amid the uncertainties over the status of Nagorno-Karabakh, while Azerbaijan’s considers it a done deal. And Turkey, by the way, does not find [the status] resolved either.  Nor does the OSCE Minsk Group,” Tarasov said, admitting that the issue is not among Russia’s priority concerns at the moment.

“The communication corridors must be put into operation and this information warfare between Armenia and Azerbaijan must come to an end to enable Armenians to feel secure, gradually doing away with this atmosphere of hatred. We understand it will not be within a matter of seconds, as all that requires a considerably long time, but the sides have, sometime in the future to sit around the negotiating table. There aren’t enough efforts in that direction as yet; we hear only calls and appeals which, however, do not play a serious role,” he added.

Tarasov also questioned the Azerbaijani authorities’ refusal to return Armenian prisoners of war (POWs) and other detained persons months after the cessation of hostilities.

 “I don’t understand why Baku needs those prisoners of war. Why don’t they let them go home now that the war is over? We don't understand what kind of bargaining is going on. I think this problem will find a positive solution as it was raised in a kind of artificial way after Azerbaijan fabricated certain scenarios. Nobody understands what that country needs, but I think the captives’ return is a matter of time. Something prompts me that active efforts by the OSCE Minsk Group will be initiated after a new government is formed in Armenia following the snap parliamentary elections. We need to be honest to admit that the foreign minister may be replaced and [Nikol] Pashinyan may no longer be at the helm of state. All this creates uncertainties now; we do not see serious negotiations today. Serious processes will be possible after all this is settled,” he said.