Turkey: All Talk, But No Plan on Stopping Iran Nuclear Program: Forbes

In a meeting with journalists recently, Turkish President Abdullah Gul said he has no doubts that Iran wants a nuclear bomb.

"This is an Iranian aspiration dating back to the previous regime, the days of the Shah." For Iran's current regime, says Gul, "I do believe it is their final aspiration to have a nuclear weapon in the end," as a matter of " 'national pride'," writes Claudia Rosett in Forbes.com. Rosett was one of the journalists present at the meeting with Gul.

Gul, writes Rosett, says Turkey is against an Iranian bomb. He believes it would trigger a nuclear arms race in the Middle East: "A major competition will start in the region."

But how does he propose Iran be stopped, asks Rosett. Turkey is against further sanctions. Gul argues that "It is not possible to isolate such a major country." Turkey is also opposed to any military action. Instead, Turkey's government favors trying to talking Iran's rulers into giving up on nuclear weapons.

For that, says Gul, the Turks are excellent negotiators, aware of the nuances of Iran's multipolar politics. "We're talking to Iranians with mutual respect, and most of the time we have very sincere and open remarks with them."

In the end, Gul says not to worry. He is sure that even if Iran gets the bomb, "they will not use it." He says he has warned Iran's leaders that the real danger they face, should they acquire nuclear weapons, is that they "will start acting in an irrational manner, which will create problems for themselves."

One might suppose it would also create problems for others, such as Israel. But Gul says Israel need not worry. However irrational Iran's leaders might become, he is sure they will remain rational enough to refrain from devastating Israel — lest, by doing so, they should harm the Palestinians or the Al Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem (which he says would then create problems for Iran "with all the Muslims of the Gulf and the surrounding regions").

Gul reaches the sweeping conclusion that the real solution to Iran's bomb program is "to eliminate nuclear weapons throughout the Middle East."

This, he suggests, is the way to "guarantee the security of Israel." But neither he nor any of the other Turkish government officials we spoke with in Ankara were able to provide a plan for ensuring that Iran — undeterred by years of European, American, UN and Turkish diplomatic talks — would genuinely abandon its bomb program.

Such is the realpolitik of Turkey today. According to Rosett, the real game in Ankara seems to be not to stop the Iranian bomb but to get along with neighboring, nuclear-arming Iran. That's not soft power. It's appeasement.