Turkey Made Miscalculations by Underestimating Azerbaijani Factor: Sabine Freizer

Ankara was not able to correctly calculate how Azerbaijan could oppose to the Armenia-Turkey normalization and had to step back, Director of Europe Program of the International Crisis Group Sabine Freizer sain in an interview with the Vocie of America radio station.

"Turkey thought it would be able to continue the normalization of relations without considering Azerbaijan's opinion, but the Azerbaijani demostrated harsh opposition. Turkey's foreign policy was not able to coorectly calaculate all that and now has to step back," said Freizer, adding that the suspention of the ratification of the Protocols in the Turkish parliament greatly affects the normalization process.

According to Freizer the ratification of the Protocols is not possible in the near future given Turkey's domestic situation.
"The discussions over Constitution in Turkey make the ratification of the Protocols signed with Armenia harder. On top of all, Turkish Prime Minister [Recep Tayyip] Erdogan has said that the Protocols will not be ratified unless there is progress over the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict," said Freizer.

On the other hand, Freizer said there might be positive development in the process despite the negative ones registered so far.
"Currently the Protocols should be left aside and [the sides] should concentrate on the possible scenarios: giving priority to the establishment of diplomatic relations between Armenia and Turkey, for example. I think that is possible to do. In the recent 1.5 years the leaders of the two countries have met for several times. And that can turn into a real diplomatic relation. The recognition of the borders also could contribute to it," said Freizer.