The importance of having Russian military base at home: Azerbaijan sounds less warlike

Recent statements about prolonging the contract that will allow the further deployment of the Russian military base in Armenia ahead of Russian President Dmitry Medvedev; upcoming visit to Yerevan, bellicose statements from Azerbaijan have in the recent days been on the decrease, Vice-Director of the Caucasus Institute Armen Minasyan told a press conference today.

Asked whether he shared the widespread view that by arming the countries in the region Russia is encouraging the resumption of the war, Mr Minasyan said: "One can contribute to the resumption of the war in the region if one arms only one of the parties, breaking the balance."

Any resumption of the Karabakh war in the near future, according to him, is not probable. "Because the war comes at a high price for all the countries, especially for the one that will start military actions, and should Azerbaijan start military actions, it has better to think about the possible losses and the problems it can have," said he.

"The Russo-Georgian war showed quite clearly that if a country starts the war and doesn't win it, then it will lose also what it had [before the war]," noted Mr Minasyan, adding that it is clear that Armenia will be the first country to recognize Karabakh's independence.

"Other countries may recognize too. As what concerns the military actions, then Azerbaijan is facing serious problems in terms of the Russia's and West's factors."