Karabakhi people strongly oppose to ceding territories: Populus

Today, European Friends of Armenia (EuFoA) has published the Nagorno Karabakh (NK) poll of the first ever internationally conducted Comparative Opinion Polls in Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh on Socio-Political Issues and Foreign Relations, according to a press release issued by EuFoA.

“Our data suggests that people in Nagorno Karabakh clearly want peace, but following a list of historic and recent events, they have little trust in most international organisations and countries. We were surprised by how clearly they favour a ceasefire consolidation, removing snipers from both sides of the line of contact and installing international observers. People in NK see that this would avoid casualties, reduce the likelihood of war and facilitate the peace negotiations, all of which they apparently rate higher than their potential fears about removing their snipers or mistrusting the observers. This data means homework for the OSCE and other European institutions” said Dr Michael Kambeck, Secretary General of EuFoA.

“This poll was conducted according to the very highest standards, both in the methodology and data collection and in the quality control processes. There are many interesting findings in the data which may spark debate among politically interested stakeholders, but we feel that such an independent poll is an important enrichment for decision makers and the public in Armenia and abroad”, added Andrew Cooper, CEO of the UK based opinion polling company Populus.

The survey returns show that residents Nagorno Karabakh strongly support measures which they think will keep Nagorno-Karabakh closely associated with Armenia, strongly oppose measures which they think cede too much to Azerbaijan, and are moderately supportive of measures which they believe may encourage peace but without compromising Nagorno-Karabakh’s ties to Armenia.

Like in Armenia, people in Nagrono Karabakh would support a ceasefire consolidation through the removal of snipers and installation of international observers along the Line of Contact (6.35), even though removing their own snipers could have been seen as a security risk and trusting international observers is not to be taken for granted. People strongly believe that if there were a ceasefire consolidation it would reduce casualties (67%), make it easier for the OSCE to advance the peace negotiations (64%) and reduce the risk of an outbreak of war (60%). Half of NK residents also think it would make it easier to have trust building measures between the conflicting parties.

However, people in Karabakh overwhelmingly oppose measures which they believe would involve ceding too much to Azerbaijan, especially returning territories surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijani control (1.1 on a scale of agreement of 1 to 10), even if the Azerbaijani military was banned and this was part of a comprehensive peace deal (1.2 on the 1-10 scale).

The survey also reveals that People in NK are more informed about the OSCE Minsk Group than people in Armenia, but their perceptions of its role and activities are no more positive. One in two (51%) of people in NK say they feel informed about the OSCE Minsk Group’s goals and activities, compared to 38% in Armenia. Less than a quarter of NK residents say that the OSCE Minsk Group is one of the organisations they trust the most – a strikingly lower level of trust even than in Armenia (38%). Only a quarter in NK say that the OSCE Minsk Group is one of the organisations which is most supportive of Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh.

In Nagorno Karabakh, 43% think that the OSCE Minsk Group has a role to play in the conflict settlement – somewhat higher than in the poll in Armenia – but less than a third of people in Nagorno-Karabakh think that the organisation is a among those most interested in a peace deal – while this is the very purpose of the Minsk Group.

While again, this data may have been boosted by the recent visit of President Medvedev, Russia is seen extremely positively in Nagorno-Karabakh, as in Armenia. Levels of trust (85%), supportiveness for NK and Armenia (78%), a strong role in the NK conflict settlement (87%) and interest in peace (80%) are much higher than the next best country or organisation (France: 32%, 40%, 46% and 32% respectively). These responses are similar to those found in Armenia, except people in NK are 16% points more likely to see a conflict settlement role for Russia.

The polls were conducted on October 22-26 in NK capital Stepanakert and the regions of Askeran, Hadrut, Martakert, Martunu and Shushi. The respondents – 804 people - gave answers to more than 30 questions through a face-to-face interview.