Armenian press forecasts dissolution of ruling coalition

Many of Armenia's newspapers address the ferment within the ruling coalition. Rumor has it that President Serzh Sargsyan has presented the Prosperous Armenia Party (PAP) with an ultimatum – it is to decide on whether it is going to support him at the next presidential election. The Armenian press is forecasting an inevitable dissolution of the coalition.

Referring to its reliable sources, the Aravot newspaper reports that Armenia's ruling coalition is to hold a meeting late this week or early next week. The Prosperous Armenia Party (PAP) is expected to announce its decision to secede from the coalition.
The reason is the ultimatum issued by Chairman of the Republican Party of Armenia (RPA) and President of Armenia Serzh Sargsyan – the PAP is to decide between him and Robert Kocharyan.

The RPA is not active in refuting the reports on the PAP's possible secession from the ruling coalition.

The Hraparak newspaper reports that PAP Chairman Gagik Tsarukyan is well aware that, should he announce the party's secession from the ruling coalition, he may lose both the party and many other things.

"They saw the ones opposing the authorities severely punished. Criminal proceedings were instituted, illegal trials and dubious contests were held in other cases So Mr. Tsarukyan's choice involves both him and many other people. He thinks not only of himself, but also of the people beside him.

"Mr. Tsarukyan has faced similar situations several times. Each time his decision was: part is smaller than a whole. So he would prefer to lose part in favor of a whole," the newspaper writes. One more February 17 (when a new coalition memorandm was signed) - with different wordings but identical contents – is awaiting Armenia.

The Azg newspaper writes that the RPA's efforts to prevent the PAP from playing its game on are quite understandable. On the other hand, the PAP's efforts to extend its influence is a natural political aspiration.

"The ferment within the ruling circles should be considered in this context. It was common knowledge that, at its sitting last Friday, the RPA Executive Board discussed domestic political problems. The RPA wished to specify its relations with the PAP. However, the RPA leader wants to know for certain before the end of this week to go to Moscow with confidence. It means that something will change sooner within the coalition than within the opposition.

"Will the RPA seek to replace the PAP should the latter leave the coalition? Has the PAP assessed the consequences of its seceding from or remaining part of the coalition? In both cases, it may benefit – in different respects though. In any case, before the Armenian president leaves for Moscow, some details will be specified here and, later, in Moscow," the newspaper writes. It recalls a similar situation after the PAP congress, when the press was concerned over the party's possible secession from the coalition. The situation was so strained that everyone went to the PAP congress, holding their breath. However, it was only during an informal talk that PAP Chairman Gagik Tsarukyan said that he would leave if he felt unable to lead the party.

"A similar situation can be observed now. The press may be said to be engaged in intrigue. The real situation is different. We have repeatedly said that the key actors in Armenia's political arena are orchestrating processes by means of the press. The situation has reached the point when both the RPA and PAP are engaged in intrigue, and something may become clear by the end of the week," the newspaper writes.

"Will Mr. Tsarukyan be bold enough to decide in favor of leaving the coalition?" Haykakan Zhamanak asks. The PAP is really on the horns of a dilemma. Although Mr. Tsarukyan and his party will not state their intention to support Serzh Sargsyan, no one within the political circles believes Mr. Tsarukyan will decide to leave the coalition.

"At its sitting October 20, the RPA Executive Board is most likely to discuss the ruling coalition's fate."