Armenia will reaffirm its position on Eurasian Union in Minsk, says politician

In an interview with Tert.am, former presidential candidate Andrias Ghukasyan said he expects Armenia to reaffirm its willingness to join the Eurasian Union at the upcoming Eurasian Economic Summit in Minsk (Belarus).

Mr Ghukasyan, Gunnar Wiegand, the chief negotiator of the EU Eastern Neighborhood project, said in Yerevan yesterday that the EU doesn’t plan any rephrasing in the Association Agreement. Belarus, on the other hand, says Armenia cannot accede to the Customs Union either this or next year. It was reported today that Kazakhstan says the CU hasn’t yet proven its value to necessitate a rapid integration process. Neither does the European Union where the process of agreeing on details lasts several years.

The Armenian authorities are at loose ends now.

Nevertheless, [FM] Edward Nalbandian will be in Minsk tomorrow to attend the Eurasian Economic Council’s summit. So, a certain process is expected.

I think a political statement will be made, expressing Armenia’s willingness to accede to the Eurasian Union.

And will the start of the process be announced?

It is hard to say, as that will depend on the domestic political developments in Armenia. The ruling force’s position can generally be considered critical in Armenia. There is a political crisis, without naturally any expectation that a certain group of people can introduce Armenia in certain international processes.

The political statement was made on September 3, expressing [Armenia’s] willingness for the Customs Union membership process. And is that expected to be on a new level?

I don’t think the representatives of the states attending the Minsk summit will introduce their visions. As to whether it will be a united or common statement, we’ll see that in a couple of days. But the meeting aims to clarify those states’ willingness to pursue that path. And I don’t think Armenia’s position in the present circumstances can be different from what [President] Serzh Sargsyan said on September 3. I think it will be a political declaration reaffirming the fact that Serzh Sargsyan has decided to join the Customs Union.

Nonetheless, two of the members warn us against joining the Customs Union.

Neither Belarus nor Kazakhstan would benefit from Armenia’s membership in the Customs Union as [the country] does not have any potential for those states – either politically or economically - and it thus becomes a rival in the CU frameworks. Armenia is a ‘subsidized state’ where the authorities think all the time whether the EU, the Eurasian Union or anyone else has to take care of the country. That’s the main agenda. As to why it is at loose ends, that’s because no one is going to provide for Armenia. The theory that Armenia has to implement reforms in return for money or Armenia will be given money and deliver military services in return, they do not work anymore.

And what is Russia’s position on this kind of statements? Are they made with its knowledge or has it assumed the neutral observer role?

Russia will try to do everything possible to assist in [President] Serzh Sargsyan’s efforts to maintain power in Armenia. As to whether or not it exercises any intervention, Russia does not have any economic or political patronage in relation to Armenia today; hence it will be limited to its observer status, holding on to its key task, i.e. that the country’s top official be Russia’s henchman.

It is widely discussed that certain developments in Armenia will depend on whether or not Ukraine will sign the Association Agreement with the EU.

There is no progress for Armenia as long as the the ruling regime is at the helm of power. It is pointless to talk about that. There are a group of people today, who maintain their political and economic power  without being able to ensure an economic development. They were hopeful to do that through the West or Russia. All those hopes were reduced to zero in the past months. And the fact people are facing today is that Armenia will not get any foreign funding or aid as long as that regime holds power..

And will the pensions or salaries rise in that case?

An increase in the pensions or salaries was a promise by people who gave assurance that the gas tariffs or the transport fares would not rise. Statements by such people should not be taken for granted because those are statements intended to create an impression that those people are concerned by the society’s well-being.