Armenia has good potentials to secure economic growth – opinions

The Russian economy’s slowdown, caused by the sanctions of the West, may objectively impact Armenia’s economic growth, an economist has said, commenting on the report about the Central Bank’s lowered forecast for the country.

“I think there are objective reasons, but I do not rule out the possibility that Armenia will manage to record a higher economic growth, as the incumbent government’s program reflects the necessary pre-requisites,” Tatul Manaseryan told Tert.am, saying that he really sees a considerable potential in the country.

As for the forecasts about reduced money transfers to Armenia, the economist said he does not rule out such a possibility. “Over the past years, we have traditionally observed a kind of dependence on individual money transfers which help mitigate the social conditions, leaving their positive impact on the population’s purchasibility. We now observe such trends,” he noted.

Manaseryan said he believes that it is possible to record a double-digit economic growth in Armenia. “These are not just our personal forecasts, but clear-cut estimates. So if those responsible for the economic sector have a real interest, we are ready to have our participation,” he added.

Addressing the report, the opposition Heritage party’s deputy leader, Armen Martirosyan, considered the estimates well-grounded and predictable.

“They are actually attempting to make Russia the only economic partner, without proposing any diversification. We said in the past that should anything happen to Russia, it would directly impact Armenia’s economy. So the Central Bank has now given that estimate. The transfers which come from Russia are a considerable injection into our economy. There aren’t basically injections in Armenia today, with European organization proposing no more grants. So we need transfers in the amounts we used to have to secure a financial flow to Armenia,” he said.

Martirosyan added that he expects the sanctions against Russia to have a boomerang effect on Armenia’s economy. He cited emigration, distrust in the government and corruption as major reasons preventing an economic growth. “Even if we record a 7% economic growth, it will offer us no advantages at all. Our citizen would feel a change only in case of a 10%-11% growth, but only an open economic system can secure that,” he added.

The politician said he thinks that Armenia’s EU association would offer good opportunities of diversification, adding that higher-level relations with Iran and China would also be positive steps in such efforts.

Asked whether a political will would help develop such relations to mitigate the situation, Martirosyan replied, “Political will in Armenia suffices only for electoral frauds and [attempts] to make state resources serve private interests.”

Gagik Minasyan, a Republican lawmaker who chairs the National Assembly’s Standing Committee on Financial-Credit and Budgetary Affairs, said it isn’t possible to make absolutely trustworthy forecasts in the changing world. “A very serious working meeting is going to take place in Minsk [Belarus] today with the participation of Russian, Ukrainian and CU [Eurasian Customs Union] member states’ leaders. The first ever meeting between Ukrainian and Russian top officials is expected. Hence those discussions may drastically change the situation. But they may also leave the things unchanged,” he noted.