Armenia must break off negotiations, demand OSCE Minsk Group exert influence on Azerbaijan – expert

In an interview with Tert.am, political scientist Hrant Melik-Shahnazaryan cited a number of reasons for latest tensions on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, including the centennial of the Armenian Genocide and the aim to neutralize the new situation following Armenia’s accession to the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU).

Mr Melik-Shahnazaryan believes that the Armenian side must break off the negotiations because the minimum security requirements are not satisfied.

The Azerbaijani side has committed hundreds of ceasefire violations since January 1, 2015. The Armenian side has suffered losses – four Armenian servicemen have been killed.

“I am sure that Azerbaijan is seeking to resolve the numerous problems by means of one provocation. First, such activity at the end of the year is a message that Armenia’s accession to the EEU does not imply any changes in the political situation in Armenian-Azerbaijani relations. And official Baku is trying to make provocations a day-to-day phenomenon now that Armenia is an EEU member.

“We should not forget that much had been talked about the new security instruments Armenia would acquire by joining this international structure, and official Baku is trying to neutralize at least the perception of the instruments to be able to continue its policy to sell peace, to show the international community that Azerbaijan remains an important factor. Further developments in the South Caucasus depend on that. The second problem they are seeking to resolve is the centennial of the Armenian Genocide, and Azerbaijan and Turkey are implementing a joint policy. That is, the Azerbaijan-Turkey alliance is shaping a different political priority in the South Caucasus rather than the centennial of the Armenian Genocide, to neutralize a negative impact of the events on Turkey.”

The expert said he agrees to the Armenian authorities’ official position that the country’s membership in the EEU guarantees a higher level of security in light of the Azerbaijani threats.

“The renewal of a large-scale war is clearly a serious threat to the economy of not only Armenia but also the EEU member states. So in case of treating it as a threat, the EEU member states should be interested in the non-renewal of war. I am confident that in case of a higher degree of threat, they will seek to influence Azerbaijan, trying all their best to prevent such hazards to the EEU, at least on the economic level. And I am sure there is no threat of a large-scale war at the current stage, though the EEU attention is not drawn to the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict as of now. I am sure Azerbaijan sees the possible aftermath, so there is a boundary it cannot cross. What Azerbaijan is trying to do now is to resolve a minimal problem,” he noted.

As for Russia’s commitments as a security guarantor, the analyst said he finds that they have more to do with the country’s membership in the Collective Security Treaty Organization. He called for demanding stronger efforts by allies towards minimizing Azerbaijani tensions against Armenia through political pressures. “Armenia must make calls for continuing the talks, and they have to first of address the maintenance of the minimal security level: snipers’ withdrawal from the border zone and the creation of monitoring groups investigating border incidents. Before these conditions are fulfilled, Armenia must stop the negotiation process, and urge the international community, especially the [OSCE] Minsk Group, to use their entire influence to hold Azerbaijan back from its aggressive policies,” he added.