Azerbaijan, Turkey in time trouble after Putin’s visit

In an interview with Tert.am, Director of the Armenian Center for National and International Studies Manvel Sargsyan commented upon Russian President Vladimir Putin’s April 24 visit to Armenia, considering his move a cause for a serious time trouble for Turkey and Azerbaijan.

Mr Sargsyan, after the Genocide centennial events that saw the topic widely covered by the international media, do you think Turkey and Azerbaijan will take to more active provocations against Nagorno-Karabakh? 

We have already heard that they tried to provoke tension along the border … unmanned drone etc. So it is naïve to think that Turkey and Azerbaijan will change their position. As to what they can do, it’s a different matter given that they have found themselves in quite a complicated situation as it is.

In what sense?

Well, they seriously hoped Putin would not come to Armenia. But Putin’s behavior made clear that he was in quite a complicated situation. He had made a difficult choice realizing well the need for exercising influence upon Turkey and Russia. Hence it created a new situation, with everything depending on Russia’s possible stance. And I don’t think now that Turkey and Azerbaijan, which are in a time trouble, are clear about future steps. But they will definitely maintain the aggressiveness.

The Russian-Azerbaijani and Russian-Turkish relations were, in experts’ estimates, very positive over the recent period. Do you expect a further deterioration?

The problem here has to do with Russia’s general strategy, not just the relations. Russia was making attempts to upgrade its relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan. And the purpose was to resist the West. This is what Putin called into question by coming to Armenia.

Germany, Vatican, Russia [and all others that condemned the Genocide faced Turkey’s criticism], and as Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian said, if one accuses all otherd, the responsibility for the problems lies with it. And there is already an impression that they are demonstrating a ridiculous behavior.

What is ridiculous? That country demonstrates that it does not take any side into consideration. As to whether it is capable of doing that is the second problem. But what they have been demonstrating this way is they won’t take anyone into account.

But they did offer condolences this year last after year’s first ever boldness to do so.

And what other choice do they have? Take an insight into Turkey; it isn’t as though tens and thousands of Turks keep track of what is going on, with the entire world voicing accusations. People in Turkey took to streets to mark the Genocide centennial. Problems more serious than this are now facing Turkey. And Germany said it would support those acknowledging the Genocide. There are also people who hurl accusations against them. It is a very serious issue for Turkey, both domestically and as a foreign policy matter. 


So did the Turkish society see it was remaining alone in its [denial campaign]?


And what about the disinformation adding to that? The Turks themselves also hear and see all that, don’t they. It isn’t as if it used to be close issue in Turkey.