Retaliating only means of containing Azerbaijan - Karen Vrtanesyan

In an interview with Tert.am, military expert, coordinator of the razm.info website Karen Vrtanesyan said that the retaliation by the Armenian side on the frontline is absolutely necessary as the only way of containing Azerbaijan’s repeated provocations.

“Retaliation is certainly the only means of containing [Azerbaijan]. Specifically, the relative peace following the latest tension this autumn was, I think, due to the Armenian side’s actions we can see in the recently released video,” Mr Vrtanesyan said.

The Armenian side stated earlier that it retaliated adequately and even asymmetrically.

“The released videos prove recent retaliations. I think the released video recoded by means of drones is a response to the Azerbaijani propaganda videos. The Armenian side thus showed that this all receives an adequate response. Moreover, while the Azerbaijani videos can hardly be interpreted in an unambiguous way, the Armenian side’s videos clearly show the strikes and caused losses,” Mr Vrtanesyan said.

Azerbaijan is actively releasing videos and resorting to provocations for the purpose of diverting its society from domestic problems.

“First, the punitive actions against residents of Nardara. The police killed five residents and are maintaining a blockade around the settlement and a number of neighboring residential areas. Another problem is the disaster on the Azerbaijani oil platform, which claimed more than 30 lives. I think that it is to distract society from these and other domestic problems that they attempted to escalate the situation on the border and release the videos to stage a show,’” Mr Vrtanesyan said.

Azerbaijani Internet users are now discussing Armenia videos in social networks. The Azerbaijani audience has broadly responded to the Armenian videos.

As to whether it is a possibility of an Armenian-Azerbaijani presidential meeting that accounts for the border tension, Mr Vrtanesyan said that Azerbaijani authorities also have a task of distracting society’s attention from economic problems.

“The oil price is now even lower than US $40, which means Azerbaijan is going to face even more serious economic problems than expected next year. And it is an occasion for them to bring the border tension into the foreground,” Mr Vrtanesyan said.

Asked if provocations could get out of control and develop into larger-scale actions, he find it difficult to say anything because the provoker cannot always control the consequences.

“I do not think it will develop into large-scale hostilities. On the other hand, however, both the sides have been using artillery for several months. And such escalation has hardly taken place since the cease fire agreement was signed.”

Mr Vrtanesyan has no grounds to think that the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs are interested in tension.

“At least now I do not see it. I do not think that Russia, the US or Europe has any interest in escalating the conflict.”

Asked if Azerbaijan is independent in it actions, Mr Vrtanesyan said that the provocations could be coordinated with Turkey.

“But I cannot say for sure because, as I have said, Azerbaijan has so many domestic problems that it is interested in escalating the situation. And I would not consider turkey factor now.”