Region entering stage of instability – Ara Papyan

The region is entering a stage of instability. Those winning will come off strong and great, those defeated will go down in history, Ara Papyan, Head of the Modus Vivendi center, told Tert.am.

“In the 1990sm the territory of the Soviet Union was reshaped, whereas the Middle East is being shaped.
And we have been entering a stage of instability and wars for the last 20 years,” he said.

Mr Papyan noted that war could be expected in any place, which, however, does not necessarily mean battlefields and fronts. Rather, he expects network warfare.

“Armenia will find itself in the hotbed and should be prepared for serious challenges,” Mr Papyan said.

Speaking of Iran’s more active role and opportunities opened up for Armenia, he said:

“I think if the problem of Armenian consumers of Russian gas remain unsolved, we cannot import gas from Iran, that is, it is under Russia’s control."

Mr Papyan considers a railway construction project in Zangezur technically and financially impossible.

On the other hand, Armenian-Iranian trade could be boosted, though Iran has always been able to sell its products in Armenia.

“Our only benefit is operation of the Georgia-Armenia-Nakhijevan-Iran railway, and Iran using it in its trade relations with Europe, which will enable Armenia to be a transit country,” Mr Papyan said.

However, he does not see any steps on the part of Armenia’s authorities and considers them unlikely.

“Iran will seek to counterbalance Turkey’s role in Azerbaijan, it will be more active due to huger funds, whereas Azerbaijan’s funds will decrease. I think the Iranian-speaking peoples, Talysh people and the Tat people, living in Azerbaijan, will be more active because Iran will make huge investments,” Mr Papyan said.

He points out religious elements in Iran’s ideology, which, according to him, pose a threat.

“Iran is in control of its religious leaders’ policy by means of its geopolitical interests,” he said.

The West has always been critical of Azerbaijan and Azerbaijan is not an economic factor of special importance for the West.

“Oil and gas are insignificant for the West.  They are of high importance for Azerbaijan itself. Our benefit is that Azerbaijan is losing its money.”

Speaking of Azerbaijan’s caviar policy, Mr Papyan said:

“Why did no they succeed in the 1990s, while they do now? It means we made mistakes. If you join the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), you join a union opposing the West, while the West was, in turn, is in opposition to you,” Mr Papyan said.

According to him, the anti-Armenian resolution would not have been approved by the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) if Armenia had not joined the EEU.

Armenia should pursue a sovereign policy and be a political and economic actor, Mr Papyan said.