By provoking border tension, Azerbaijan demonstrates failure to abide by commitments – Russian analyst  

The Azerbaijani armed forces’ recent incursion on Armenia’s state border was an attempt to demonstrate that the country isn’t willing to respect its commitment to peace as agreed at the presidential summit in Vienna, says a Moscow-based political analyst.

“The possibility of such provocations has always existed and will always exist. And that possibility increases further in the light of Azerbaijan’s lonely status in diplomacy, and its isolation because of the failure to respect the commitments undertaken in Vienna, and later also in St Petersburg. Azerbaijan’s choice at the moment is to either increase the tension or demonstrate to all the sides that it is not going to abide by the commitments reached,” Modest Kolerov told Tert.am, commenting on the Azerbaijani armed forces’ attempted infiltration through Armenia’s state border.

Describing the incident as a premeditated provocation, the expert said he believes that the country sought in that way for Russia’s more active role as a member state of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).  

“I think it was an attempt to pull Russia’s ‘moustache’. Azerbaijan had a pre-calculated plan to demonstrate that it acts separately from the OSCE Minsk Group and that it is for the CSTO to deal with the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The CSTO is now politically paralyzed, as political decisions are made based on a consensus, whereas the Belarus president didn’t attend the [Organization’s] recent session. [Alexander] Lukashenko recently visited Baku, so Minsk and Baku may have approximated positions.”

“Azerbaijan demonstrated that it can permissively use any armed force, and that the CSTO is in a paralyzed state,” Kolerov added.

Asked why then the rhetoric isn’t being revised for enforcing accountability against Azerbaijan, the expert said he believes that the recent attack (which was on Armenia’s state border) should push the country itself to proactive steps instead of expecting aid from Russia.

“If we want a change in the rhetoric, we expect Armenia to apply to the international platforms and request military assistance from Russia, because the CSTO is paralyzed,” he said.