Energy expert warns of Turkish-Azerbaijani plan to push Armenia into isolation

The Iranian, Russian and Azerbaijani leaders’ upcoming summit in Sochi threatens  Armenia with an energy and transport isolation by bringing to agenda a range of issues running counter to the country’s interests, according to an energy expert.

In an interview with Tert.am, Vahe Davtyan expressed his concerns over the North-South Energy Corridor Project proposing a synchronization of systems for Russia through Azerbaijani infrastructures. He also elaborated on plans to give the Azerbaijani component a coordinated status in the logistics transport corridor.

The expert further warned of possible steps to de-actualize the North-South Energy Corridor project involving Armenia. “It is in a dead-end as it is - despite its integration significance for Armenia. Since 2018, Baku has been actively negotiating with Moscow and Tehran towards the synchronization of the Iranian and Russian energy systems through Azerbaijani infrastructures to ensure the mutual flow of electric power. The regular round of talks will be conducted in Baku - very probably in September. The sides, however, can be now said to have agreed on steps towards realizing the corridor project,” he said, admitting that Azerbaijan has managed to adopt the necessary diplomatic set of tools to apply to the natural gas and transport communication and electric energy projects.

“Unfortunately, we do not have such a diplomatic set of tools. Neither have we pursued any objectives – either in the past or at present – to develop anything of the kind. At the same time, however, the government is elaborating an energy development project, which will cover simultaneously two issues. The first project is being drafted by a foreign institution - USAID – which by definition desecuritzes our energy policies. The second issue is, I think, the fact that the development program can be treated as just a list of events under conditions of the absence of a security doctrine. This is why we are little by little losing the energy markets, thereby creating additional risks to our energy security. Armenia needs a new energy security doctrine providing a clear-cut distinction between internal and external, political, economic, social, environmental and other risks,” he added.

“The international North-South railway corridor project, which is designed to connect Northern Europe with the Indian Ocean, covers the energy component in its logistics. Back in 2008 – when Moscow declared the plan to launch the Iran-Armenia railway project (after accepting the concession management) – the latter was treated, first of all, as an important part of the North-south international corridor. But to bring the project into life, ensuring its economic expediency it was important to launch the South Caucasus Railway to secure the railway communication among Russia, Abkhazia, Georgia and Armenia, opening the way to the Persian Gulf. Not accidentally enough, Moscow became the concessionary manager also of the Abkhazian railway, simultaneously conducting closed-door negotiations with Tbilisi to have its role in the management of the Georgian railways,” the expert said, noting that the Armenian railways were renamed too as part of the geopolitical project (which never came to life due to the five-day Russian-Georgian war).

Agreeing that the energy communication agreements with neither Georgia nor Iran have seen an essential progress in the past years, Davtyan said he now observes attempts by the eastern and western neighbors to diversify the energy isolation of Armenia. He stressed the need of active efforts towards stepping up the North-South railway corridor project to increase Armenia’s chances of as an energy exporter and make the country an important energy transit zone. “North-South is in this way an integration challenge for Armenia, with the current passiveness around the country being now impermissible and extremely dangerous.”

Davtyan cited also Deputy Premier Tigran Avinyan’s statement announcing plans to launch the corridor in the couple of years to come. “Such general wordings demonstrate that our government does not have a clear-cut strategy in that direction. That, in point of fact, is the result of the desecuritzation trends observed over the past several years. In 2016, the government renamed the Energy Ministry, reorganizing it into a Ministry of Energy Infrastructures, whereas energy is not absolutely restricted to infrastructures alone. Energy implies also geopolitics, social and marketing policies. In the absence of an energy ministry today (which is absolutely unaceptable), it is very difficult for a country facing the kind of in-depth energy-transport problems to expect strategic solutions and conceptual approaches,” he added.