Russia's long-standing influence on Middle East ‘blocks chances of hostilities’ over Karabakh – Russian expert

Hripsime Hovhannisyan

As long as Russia maintains its influence in the Middle East, there are zero chances of fresh military hostilities over Nagorno-Karbakh (Artsakh), according to Vladimir Lepekhin, the director of the Moscow-based EurAsEc Institute.

In an interview with Tert.am, the expert called attention to two essential factors as crucial elements in the country’s future policymaking.  

″Russia has a strategic role, which it won’t abandon under any circumstances. That deals with [its status as] a security guarantor, protection of the legal state and fulfillment of its obligations accordingly - in relation to partners within the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), i.e. – Armenia in this particular case. As long as Russia maintains influence in the Middle East, there will be no military operations in Nagorno-Karabakh,″ he said, commenting on the talks between the Russian and Turkish leaders.

In his words, Russian President Vladimir Putin always has on mind Turkey’s attitude to Karabakh at all meetings with Turkey’s president (whether discussing the Syrian issue or the situation in Lybia, etc., to rule out chances of a pro-Azerbaijani solution).

Lepekhin also shared his positive evaluation of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s position on the issue, agreeing that Nagorno-Karabakh must act as independent subject in the negotiations. ″That means that Armenia has finally found its place in the relations with the OSCE Minsk Group.

“I have always been critical of Armenia for putting too much trust in the Minsk Group – which never actually will resolve this problem but will instead pull one over on Armenia and Azerbaijan, giving the same promises to both. Hence Pashinyan is introducing a kind of change. And that shapes a new configuration strengthening eventually the local stakeholders’ role. The point is that the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict can be resolved only by the local role-players – through direct negotiations involving Armenia, Azerbaijan and also Nagorno-Karabakh – with Russia, Iran and Turkey maintaining their objectiveness in the 3+3 format without the OSCE Minsk Group, which pursues no interest in the region but is instead engaged in demagogy,″ he added.