Russia-Turkey row to push Azerbaijan to further anti-Armenian aggression – analyst

Hripsime Hovhannisyan

A possible deterioration in the Russian-Turkish relations will unconditionally spur Azerbaijan to further hostilities, pushing the country to aggressive actions against Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh (Artsakh), a Russian political analyst said Monday, commenting on the recent talks between the two countries' leaders (after the attack on the military base in the Syrian province of Idlib).

Speaking to Tert.am, Alexander Skakov predicted real chances of anti-Armenian military actions in the broader context of regional developments. ″[Azerbaijani President Ilham] Aliyev will unconditionally take advantage of this amid the weakening of Russia's positions. It will depend on other circumstances too, such as Turkey's relations with NATO, etc.

″We have already eyewitnessed such scenarios, which was not in the too distant past. One has to be fool indeed to think that Moscow will move to enforcing sanctions against Aliyev for launching an agression. Why should Moscow opt for creating problem which it will later be unable to solve,″ he said.

The expert proposed adherence to status-quo as the most reasonable solution under the circumstances.

Admitting that Turkey is indifferent to Nagorno-Karabakh, Skakov said he nonetheless expects the country to use the problem as a tool of pressure upon Turkey.

The analyst also admitted that the March 5 meeting held between Presidents Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Vladimir Putin would not immediately pave way to resolving all the problems.

″But the very fact of the meeting itself will certainly cause a certain haste. That is necessary for both Moscow and Ankara,″ he added.

Skakov further warned of other role-players' major impact, highlighting particularly the Assad regime and the Idlib militant groups (whom he described as satellites).  

″And it isn't absolutely easy to govern them. Putin and Erdogan managed - despite the 'hot heads' beside - to demonstrate that they do nonetheless have the desire to enter into arrangements. Both being stubborn and hardline leaders, the fact was to everybody's advantage. But I think more meetings will be need to make a settlement possible,″ he said.