Russian plan to deploy peacekeepers in Artsakh 'attempt to gain influence over Azerbaijan' - expert

Hripsime Hovhannisyan

Russia has been taking consistent actions since 2010 towards deploying peacekeeping forces in Nagorno-Karabakh (Artsakh) in an apparent effort to gain leverages of influence over Azerbaijan's territory, Benyamin Poghosyan, the Executive Director of the Center for Political and Strategic Studies, said in an interview with Tert.am.

Commenting on Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov's recent statement in Moscow (announcing about ongoing negotiations to reach a "phased settlement" of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict), the expert noted that the scenario was until quite recently opposed by not only the Armenian side but also, to a great extent, the Azerbaijani authorities.

He cited the presence of the 102nd Russian Military Base in Armenia as a good precedent to evaluate that country's influence. 

Meantime Poghosyan agreed that the other stakeholders too, were quite disapprovingly disposed to the idea. "The United States have, since 2011-2012, been pursuing the policy of restraining Russia. And the curb on the Russian influence in the post-Soviet region is a constituent part of such efforts. Understandably, the appearance of Russian military troops in Azerbaijan runs directly counter to that policy by the United States," Poghosyan said, noting that Russia and Iran were not quite enthusiastic about the project either.

"And Turkey is attempting to strengthen its positions in the South Caucasus through a trilateral cooperation with Georgia and Azerbaijan; hence the deployment of Russian troops is against also the interests of Turkey," he added.

The expert said he believes that those regional players themselves (as well as the other stakeholders) have until now prevented Russia from realizing its long-awaited objective. "Hence no wonder at all that a gentlemen's agreement was reached in the late 1990's over excluding representatives of countries co-chairing the OSCE Minsk Group - as well as Iran and Turkey as regional states - from any possible peacekeeping mission in the region. And that agreement was understandably directed first of all against Russia," he noted.  

The expert also highlighted policy shifts in the western attitudes, calling attention to two essential factors.

"The first factor has to do with the grand agreement between the West, i.e. - the United States, and Russia, which deals essentially with the US-China strategic confrontation and Russia's role in that process. The United States does not want to see a deepening strategic cooperation between Russia and China. What it wishes is to maximum halt the process," he said, predicting chances of improvements in the Russia-US relations.

Agreeing that Ukraine is the key apple of discord between Russia and the West, Poghosyan highlighted the broader context of the problem applying to the post-Soviet region (apart from the Baltic states).

"So if the West now wishes to end or prevent the Russia-China cooperation, it has to enter into certain arrangements with Russia. The apple of discord here is the post-Soviet region in essence. The message behind the numerous analytical articles in the past couple of years is that there have always been zones of influence, and it is necessary to abandon the deceptive idea that the Cold War zones have been neutralized so to speak, and hence it is likewise impermissible to avoid considering the post-Soviet space a "zone of Russian influence". If the improvement of the relations with Russia implies the recognition of certain territories as zones of Russian influence, the West is required to take that step to prevent Russia from turning into China's junior ally," he added.

Poghosyan also highlighted the likelihood of recognizing part of the post-Soviet territory as such a zone. "If that part involves also the South Caucasus, the counter-steps by the West, particularly the United States, may not appear that powerful indeed."

As for Iran, the analyst noted that the current status of Nagorno-Karabakh is "absolutely satisfactory" for the country given that the de-jure control over of the Iran-Azerbaijan border (more than 1,800km) could be the best solution in the current state of affairs. "It turns out to be a kind of state border lying between the Artsakh Republic and Iran," he said, admitting that the Islamic Republic is still prone to believe that its economy deteriorated after dropping out of the US nuclear deal and facing economic sanctions.

"The coronavirus infection and the decline in oil prices added fuel to the fire. There are now much more serious problems for Iran than the strengthening of its positions in the North Caucasus or the presence or absence of peacekeeping forces there," Poghosyan said, not ruling out the possibility of Russia's message that the proposal was made by the OSCE Minsk Group mediators (an implication that powers with hostile attitudes towards Iran could be pushing their way into the region).

Addressing Turkey's ambitions, Poghosyan admitted that Azerbaijan's total control over Artsakh - coupled with the possible plans to build a land corridor with Nakhichevan (to connect the two states through the autonomous republic) - would be the best-case scenario for the country. But he also pointed out to the numerous unresolved problems on the Turkey-Russia agenda (the Syrian issue, the balance of powers between Russia and NATO in the Black Sea basin, etc.) as a real possibility signaling Turkey's milder attitude towards Russia in the long-term future.

"In my estimation, the situation is now much worse than at the time when the 'Lavrov Plan' was pushed forward, so to speak. That, to all appearances, was put into circulation in 2014 as the modified version of the Kazan document. And one of the changes there was the phrasal replacement of peacekeeping forces with Russian peacekeepers." 

The analyst noted that the Belarusian president, Alexander Lukashenko, also addressed the topic at the Collective Security Treaty Organization's (CSTO) summit in Yerevan, proposing the deployment of Russian and Belarusian troops on the territory of Armenia.

"It is quite possible, by the way, that the Belarusian peacekeepers had their involvement too, to [legitimize] what we call the 'CSTO peacekeeping forces'. Russia probably thought it would create difficulties for Armenia in terms of rejecting the proposal - given that Armenia is a CSTO member state and could be consequently told that it is facing absolutely no problem. The CSTO also has its own peacekeeping forces; hence a possible proposal for their deployment is not ruled out either," he said.

But Poghosyan agreed that the scenario does not make the matters easier for Armenia (in the sense that any change in Artsakh's territorial integrity is unacceptable for the country in both the long-term and short-term perspectives). "We all understand that nothing on earth lasts forever. And that applies to both the peacekeeping forces and the guarantees. It is understandable that after the loss of certain territories, we will be facing more difficulty in terms of guaranteeing the security of Artsakh," he added.