Renewed war in Artsakh 'depends on political developments in Belarus' - analyst

The possibility of a renewed war in Nagorno-Karabakh (Artsakh) depends on the domestic political developments in Belarus, a Yerevan-based political analyst said Tuesday, commenting on the ongoing protests in the country after incumbent President Alexander Lukashenko's fifth re-election.

In an interview with Tert.am, Hrant Melik Shhahnazaryan predicted two possible scenarios: either the prolongation of Lukashenko's tenure for a short period (without the former political clout and self-reliance) or the formation of a caretaker government (if Russia proves to be skeptical of the promises given by the long-time leader).

"Both scenarios in Belarus are, in point of fact, two very different developments of a single scenario. The change of government is crucial; the question is whether it will take place now or in the couple of years to come. Obviously, the processes which have not got underway in the post-Soviet region will have their logical continuation in Azerbaijan. They also have a long-established government which is trying to be independent of Russia's foreign policy and dictate the geopolitical centers its own agenda. And they too. have a breeding ground for initiating such processes," he said, noting that Aliyev will realize he is not an exception after seeing the successful toppling of Lukashenko.

"Aliyev will then be more attentive to different centers, mainly to Russia's political agenda and demand. And Russia pursues one single agenda in our region - the EAEU's expansion and Azerbaijan's involvement in that structure. Aliyev does not have many tools to avoid this apart from the threat of war, which will protract the integration process. Depending on the developments in Belarus, Aliyev may opt for a war in Artsakh as a self-defense method aiming to also halt Russia's advancement,"  he said, emphasizing that the Azerbaijani authorities are currently having serious consultations with Turkey over a close politico-military cooperation.

"Turkey, in its turn, is increasing is poltico-military presence in the South Caucasus, which Russia naturally doesn't like. And it will certainly call for certain actions against Azerbaijan. The threat of a renewed war is a real option in Azerbaijan's plans in terms of achieving any changes," Melik-Shahnazaryan added.

Addressing Armenia's position on the developments in Belarus, the expert said he thinks that Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is trying to second the official Russian circles' position.

"The congratulatory address to Lukashenko followed the congratulations by the Russian president. A primary task for Armenia in the current situation has to deal with security and Turkey's activity within our borders and in our region. The Armenian diplomacy is not regrettably doing anything to halt Turkey's active actions. Armenia seems to be excluded in a way from all sorts of developments. Pashinyan has not discussed the July escalations in Tavush with any country's leader, whereas Aliyev held discussions with the leaders of many countries, including Russia. Nobody speaks to Armenia, with Nikol Pashinyan being totally excluded from the processes without any influence or role to play," he said.