Breach of Moscow-brokered truce 'major slap' for Russia - Vardan Voskanyan

Hripsime Hovhannisyan

Azerbaijan had many reasons to fail to abide by the trilateral ceasefire accord agreed on the level of foreign ministers in Moscow, Vardan Voskanyan, a specialist in Iranian studies, said on Saturday, pointing out to the existing big expectations in that country (after the promises given by President Ilham Aliyev).

"The Baku dictator himself has provoked those expectations and is now attempting to justify them in a way," he told Tert.am in an interview.

"The discourse unfolded over the 'liberation' of territories, the 'return' of the entire Artsakh, the Azerbaijani army's victory and other legends which had been sown in that society. And hence, obviously, the situation on the ground did not justify those expectations, bringing Aliyev face to face with difficulties." 

According to Voskanyan, those difficulties were foreseeable in the light of an emerging domestic political campaign in Azerbaijan. "What strikes attention as part of that campaign is also the participants' framework - ranging from pro-democratic powers to the pro-Iranian Shia forces and other groups. With the failure to respect the ceasefire regime at the moment, an attempt is being made to achieve more gains. As to what extent it will succeed, it is a completely different matter," the expert noted.  

Voskanyan said he believes that lasting political instabilities in Azerbaijan will work largely to Armenia's advantage, giving the country a real hope about substantial transformations in the neighboring state.  "There are indigenous peoples in Azerbaijan, who raise other demands. I mean the Talysh and Lezgi groups. The best-case scenario would be the state's transformation,"  he said.

As for the worst-case scenario, Voskanyan predicted slim though realistic chances for the terrorist militants to eventually reach Baku to act as decision-makers. "That risk is not great at the moment but should not be ruled out," he warned.

Agreeing that anti-Armenian sentiments dominate the agenda of practically all the political forces in Azerbaijan, the expert said he is under the impression that those forces are now in a kind of competition with one another. "The anti-Armenian sentiments have become the main trump card used for achieving a regime change in Azerbaijan," he added.

Voskanyan also agreed that Azerbaijan "entered into a big game" by breaching the Moscow ceasefire. "A huge blow was given to the image of the artificially formed organization calling itself Azerbaijan. The Baku dictator attempted to create 'Europe in Asia', the image of a secular Muslim state where European phenomena are developing. But the terrorists' presence, as a matter of fact, blew up the false image," he added.

The second blow which Azerbaijan got by breaching the Moscow ceasefire is becoming obvious only now, according to the expert.

"Breach of faith is impermissible in international relations. Russia is a state of vital importance in this region, and the breach of any arrangement reached there is a slap in the face for the Russian Federation. So it must not, under any circumstances, be forgiven. Azerbaijan derailed Russia's mediation mission," Voskanyan said.

Noting that the other co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group also invested considerable efforts in pushing ahead with ceasefire, Oskanyan said he doesn't expect the international community to demonstrate indifference to such an attitude.

Commenting on the dominating sentiments in the neighboring Iran, the expert noted that they have a multi-layer government elite which has disagreements internally despite acting from a unanimous position on the international arena.

"One thing is obvious, i.e. - that a certain group of decision-makers in Iran, those who guide themselves by the country's interest without succumbing to ideological constraints, consider Azerbaijan a real hazard. What's being taken into account here are the aspirations which the Baku authorities are pursuing presently in relation to the Turkic-speaking northern provinces of Iran, in particular, Atropatene. Iran is also a regime built upon the Shia ideology, whereas Shias form a prevalent group in the Azerbaijani population. This is actually why the Iranians work very delicately there, maintaining mainly a balanced position, but also having in mind the possible struggle for power in Azerbaijan (where Iran would seek to ensure its own representatives' engagement - in the form of the Shia group, a powerful opposition for Ilham Aliyev). The Iranians are trying to leave an open door to later have their participation in the domestic political campaign in Azerbaijan," Voskanyan said, noting that those powers pursue anti-Armenian approaches.