Nagorno-Karabakh's recognition 'will mark drastic situational change' - Russian analyst

The recognition of Nagorno-Karabakh (Artsakh) as an independent state entity is expected to bring about a drastic situational change, Stanislav Tarasov, a Moscow-based historian specializing in Caucasus studies, said today, commenting on the reported escalations in the conflict zone.

"Should Yerevan take such a step, Armenia will legitimately enter into military clashes with Azerbaijan, which considers those lands its own. The conflict, which is now restricted to Nagorno-Karabakh (though it is considered an Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict), will be expanded," RIA Novosti quotes him as saying.

But the expert refrained from any remarks as to future diplomatic steps, considering it too early to make any predications.

"Turkey is speaking about a war 'until a victory', though the general headquarters responsible for planning actions has not led them to a blitzkrieg in essence. Had the Azerbaijani army seized [Nagorno-Karabakh's capital] Stepanakert, the discourse would be different now. But the conflict is going on and on, with Armenia enjoying a greater support globally, especially in Europe. Hence, the protraction of the armed conflict is not advantageous to either it [Armenia] or Nagorno-Karabakh," Tarasov said, predicting low chances of a settlement in the near future (judging by reports from regions where hostilities are going on).

According to Tarasov. Azerbaijan's president, Ilham Aliyev, has narrowed his chances of "cunning tricks" through his cooperation with Ankara.

"[Turkish President Recep Tayyip] Erdogan, as an adventurer, is better known in the negative light. Turkey is waging war in Syria and Libya. And for many years, Turkey has been unsuccessfully leading a battle against the militant group of Peshmerga in the Middle East. Despite the propaganda, no serious success has been recorded as yet. Should the major global players fail to assist Erdogan now, he will simply have to quit the game, leaving Aliyev alone. To secure his victory on that front, [early 20th century Ottoman ruler Mustafa Kemal] Ataturk handed over Baku to Moscow to pave the way for the [Soviet] Red Army's entry without any gunfire. Hence, Aliyev must be prepared also for that scenario," he expert predicted.

Noting that Ankara's actions attract no criticism by either by the European capitals nor Tehran, the historian he expects the Islamic State to claim more rights to those lands, which used to be under Persian control.

In case Azerbaijan's military actions prove fruitless, the sides may be proposed the compromise option of declaring Nagorno-Karabakh a mandated territory, Tarasov added.

Azerbaijan launched large-scale offensives along the Line of Contact on September 27, targeting also the civilians of Nagorno-Karabakh (Artsakh).

As of October 19, the Artsakh defense forces were reported to have shot down 16 war helicopters, 22 warplanes, 200 UAVs, 566 units of armored vehicles (mainly tanks), 86 transport vehicles, 10 armored personnel carriers and multiple rocket launchers (one unit of TOS-1A, two units of BM-30 Smerch and one unit of BM-27 Uragan).

The adversary has lost over 6,259 troops since the eruption of the hostilities. Armenia has officially reported 729 military casualties. 

Azerbaijan's armed forces targeted also civilian objects and military objectives on the territory of Armenia. Two civilians were fatally shot in the Gegharkunik region. As many as 115 civilians were wounded and some 36 were killed in Nagorno-Karabakh. Physical damage was caused to over 6,700 units of property and infrastructures, 640 vehicles and an estimated 1,110 public and manufacturing facilities.  

The Azerbaijani strikes left also journalists (representing both the local and international media) wounded.

Armenia and Artsakh declared martial law and a general mobilization on September  27.

Despite the humanitarian ceasefire agreed formally twice, Azerbaijan's armed forces continued the subversive attacks  in the past days, shelling also civilians settlements on Nagorno-Karabakh's territory.