New war over Karabakh ‘inevitable’ amid Azerbaijan’s active preparations – expert

A renewed war over Nagorno-Karabakh (Artsakh) is inevitable as long as Azerbaijan is increasing its budget, conducting military drills and preparing new cooperation documents,  an expert in Azerbaijani studies said today, warning of the neighboring country’s aspirations.

According to Angela Elibegova, the active preparations are a clear sign that the Azerbaijani authorities will not be satisfied with the gains of the recent war against the Armenians.

“Wide circles of our society are not putting up with the reality; they are preparing for the next war, realizing that Azerbaijan will never limit itself to that. We have to state that if Azerbaijan is increasing its military budget and conducting drills – while experts make outspoken remarks, explaining that new military documents are being prepared – the war is inevitable. They will not be satisfied with this,” she told a news conference.

Admitting that Azerbaijan is now experiencing a “post-war euphoria”, the expert said she also clearly sees that Aliyev fearing revenge and a government transition process in Armenia. “This post-war euphoria is still expected to last long in Azerbaijan, as they had been heading towards that victory for 26 years, bringing up generations.

“Even though not in a full-fledged manner, they did receive what they desired; yet they do not find that they gained a full control over Artsakh. Aliyev is afraid of revenge and is hopeful that the current [Armenian] authorities will remain in power long,” she added.

Elibegova also addressed the process of resettling refugees in occupied Armenian regions. “Those who refuse to return in the status of refugees will be stripped of all the privileges in Azerbaijan. Some will opt for migration. Realizing the second problem fairly well, they [the Azerbaijani authorities] also promise to permit anyone who wishes to settle on those territories to easily do that. That will drag on for years; hence the important thing for us to make haste to prevent Syrian mercenaries’ settlement there. While it will relieve Aliyev of trouble, we will be forced to live side by side with the mercenaries from Syria,” the expert commented.

Addressing the return of captives, the expert noted that Azerbaijan closed the chapter on the issue after repatriating its saboteurs.

“They first staged a kind of PR campaign, alleging that they were organizing a swap, but all they needed were actually the two saboteurs,” she said, agreeing at the same time that Azerbaijan has real chances to more easily handle the issue by virtue of having fewer captives.

“We actually have information from Russia that Azerbaijanis find themselves on territories under Armenian control, with Armenia directly – and unconditionally - handing them over to Azerbaijan, etc.,” she said.

The expert also referred to the Azerbaijani leader’s repeatedly voiced theses aiming to calm down the domestic audience.  

Agreeing that the struggle has not finished yet, she also stressed the importance of putting forward more thesis to demonstrate Armenia’s commitment and determination to fight on.

“With our theses, we now have to make clear that this isn’t absolutely the end, as our society is not coming to terms with this situation. Azerbaijan will resort to every possible method – whether propaganda or manipulation – to keep the Armenian authorities in power long. They are afraid of new authorities or a new renaissance. And they will do all their best to make Armenians weak, suppressed and disillusioned, allowing this government to eventually leave us despaired,” she added.