West played ‘almost no role’ in Karabakh settlement - Neil Macfarlane

The West played almost no role in the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh (Artsakh) conflict, says Neil Macfarlane, a London-based professor specializing in Russian foreign policy and post-Soviet regional dynamics.

In an interview with Tert.am, he ruled out any real chances also of a future engagement, questioning the existence of any real processes.

“My question would be: is there a settlement process? We know what the positions of the parties are. We more or less know what the positions of Russia and Turkey are. We do not have any real idea of what the western involvement is,” he said, noting that most western powers are now preoccupied with more pressing concerns (such as the political developments in the aftermath of the US presidential election, the socio-economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic, etc.)

“When we turn to the foreign policy agenda, the key questions are rebuilding alliance frameworks and also addressing the growing challenge from China. In short, there is not much space for Karabakh, and, as I see it, no serious effort to become actively involved. The Russian government is aware of this and acts accordingly,” he added.

Asked to comment on Foreign Minister Ara Aivazian’s call for a stronger OSCE Minsk Group co-chairmanship, the expert said he believes that the Armenian top diplomat was supposed, ex officio, to make the kind of statement.

“The Chairman in Office would say that. After all, if you sit in the chair, you sing the tune.

I have been watching the Minsk Group and the chair/co-chairs for about 30 years. They have not achieved much in that long process. They did not achieve much during the last war. I see no reason to expect that they will play much of a role after the war. The existence of a strong co-chairmanship is prevented by the deep differences among the co-chairs in general policy and also on this specific issue. On the other hand, if Russia wants the chairs to play a significant role, this might change,” he said.

Refraining from any comments on the Armenian authorities’ actions during the war, the analyst admitted, nevertheless, that their weaking in the post-war period was among its direct consequences.

“This limits their capacity to negotiate. Another is the strengthening of the Azerbaijani government, which reduces their interest in negotiations ...

“As for ‘working with the international community”, is there are international community? I am reminded of the comment attributed to Henry Kissinger when he was asked: but what would the European Economic Community (the predecessor to the European Union) say? He allegedly responded: what is their phone number? True or not, it is a good question re. the EU and NATO. It is an even better question with respect to the ‘international community’," he said.