How high are the chances of TRIPP being implemented at this stage. Suren Sargsyan

International affairs expert Suren Sargsyan has written about the likelihood of the TRIPP initiative being implemented.

"I have repeatedly noted that the Trump administration has reached a level of activity and engagement in the South Caucasus—and, indeed, in Central Asia—that no U.S. administration has managed to achieve since 1992.

Of course, this is not solely due to favorable geopolitical circumstances. Naturally, the fact that Russia is focused on the war in Ukraine has also played a significant role. As a result, Russia's involvement and influence in the South Caucasus and Central Asia have weakened considerably. The same applies to Iran. This, in turn, has created an opportunity for the Trump administration to play a much more active role in the region.

However, two key factors have been particularly important in making this process unprecedentedly rapid and effective.

The first factor is Steve Witkoff.

According to available information, Steve Witkoff is one of the architects of TRIPP. The idea of connecting Central Asia with Turkey and Europe through TRIPP is also attributed to his team. This initiative carries not only economic and transportation significance but also an important geopolitical dimension. It is also noteworthy that Witkoff has direct access to President Trump, which prevented bureaucratic and chain-of-command obstacles from emerging during the project's initial phase (February 2025).

In turn, resolving the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict gives Washington an opportunity to deprive Russia of one of its most important instruments for maintaining influence in the South Caucasus—the ability to leverage the continued existence of the conflict.

The second key factor is the Trump administration's governing style, which is characterized by a significant reduction in bureaucratic procedures, particularly when implementing issues of vital importance—including, where deemed necessary, the use of force (it is enough to recall how quickly the issues related to the Panama Canal, Venezuela, and several other long-standing matters were addressed).

Decision-making processes move as quickly as possible, without the traditional bureaucratic delays, allowing such large-scale geopolitical projects to advance efficiently and enabling rapid solutions to emerging challenges.

In this context, President Trump’s personal involvement in these processes also plays an important role. At the same time, Marco Rubio heads not only the State Department but also the work of the National Security Council, contributing to closer coordination between foreign policy and national security institutions. As a result, competition among different government agencies and lengthy interagency coordination processes are minimized, making both decision-making and implementation faster and more effective.

Neither Trump nor the key members of his team have ever been bureaucrats. That is precisely what enables them to understand how bureaucracy complicates not only the process of making political decisions but also their implementation—even when those decisions concern urgent and strategically important issues.

In this respect, this administration differs favorably from every previous administration without exception. These are, of course, key factors, but they are not the only ones.

Naturally, there are also a number of factors that hinder the implementation of TRIPP, even despite the considerable efforts being invested. I will address those in a separate post," he wrote.a